At the time of writing, Ireland is part of a rapidly shrinking club: Those countries who are, in the face of strong evidence of collusion with Hamas, continuing to fund the UN relief agency in Gaza anyway.
It is not necessary for the purposes of this article to get into the rights and wrongs of that decision. It need only be noted that after revelations (or “allegations”, take your pick) that UN employees moonlighted as Hamas fighters in the October 7th attacks on Israel, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, the United States, Estonia, and many others are amongst the countries who have declared that for the moment, they will freeze all funding to UNWRA.
Indeed, Ireland’s general stance on the Israeli war against Hamas in Gaza has been notably out of step with that of the majority of European countries, and in particular that of the big players. While this country debates joining the quixotic South African case at the ICJ against Israel, France for example has opposed that case and is joined in that position by the majority of the European Union. Germany is a rock solid Israeli ally, as is Italy, and as are most of the Eastern European states.
For the moment at least, Ireland does not stand alone and is not as isolated regarding Gaza as the Hungarians are regarding Ukraine: The Spanish Government (arguably the most left wing in Europe) is at our side, as are one or two others. But make no mistake: The Irish position is a minority one, and we could be further isolated in the event of a change of Government in Spain. Israel has many allies in Spain, they’re just out of Government for the moment.
I write all of this not because it is of immediate importance, but because it has obvious importance in the light of the revelations reported by the Financial Times yesterday:
A file seen by the FT outlines a confidential plan by Brussels to shut off all EU funding to Budapest in order to spark a run on Hungary's currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence https://t.co/QRQWzBMvdZ pic.twitter.com/cjiB1EtekC
— Financial Times (@FT) January 29, 2024
Ireland is in a different position to Hungary in one respect: We are, unlike the Hungarians, net contributors to the EU, meaning we pay in more than we get back. An EU “funding cut” would not hurt us, since a Government determined to fight it could simply withhold whatever we’re paying in, and emerge better off. Whether an Irish Government would have the testicular fortitude to actually do such a thing is a different question, but it would be an option.
But note three things about this plan, which the Financial Times says it has hard evidence of: First, it punishes Hungary for doing something entirely legal.
Under the EU Treaties, Hungary has a veto over whether EU funds are directed to Ukraine. It is within its rights to use that veto for whatever reason it wishes, because on paper Hungary remains a sovereign state whose consent is required. In respect of Ukraine, Hungary has done nothing illegal or improper.
Second, it goes well beyond simply withholding funding:
“The EU will sabotage Hungary’s economy if Budapest blocks fresh aid to Ukraine at a summit this week, under a confidential plan drawn up by Brussels that marks a significant escalation in the battle between the EU and its most pro-Russian member state.
In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv.”
Third, it is directed at Hungary’s intransigence on foreign policy, which is something Irish people should be very alert to: It is not hard to imagine a situation where Ireland, and not Hungary, is the outlier on a major foreign policy situation like, for example, funding for Israel or funding for Gaza. Once this precedent is set, then it will have been set forever.
The worst thing about all of this, however, is that it amounts to a direct attack on national sovereignty: Like Ireland, Hungary agreed to be bound by the EU treaties and ratified those treaties on an understanding that it would retain an unshakeable veto in certain areas. In Ireland, we ratified the same treaties on the specific understanding that a common EU foreign policy would not undermine Irish neutrality. Democratic promises were made to voters on that understanding.
Yet the EU – or at least powerful actors within the EU – is now saying that the use of that veto comes with a price: Economic ruin. Had this been made clear before the ratification of the relevant EU treaties; would Hungary have signed them? Would Ireland?
Ireland should be standing with Hungary in this instance. Not because Ireland agrees with Hungary on the subject matter of Ukraine funding – clearly we do not. But because there may come a day in the future when we will seriously regret allowing this precedent to be set.
Mind you, if Irish politicians were good at spotting problems before they arise, people like me would never have anything to write about. So the chances are Hungary will stand alone, and remember it should Ireland ever need an ally in the future.