If you want evidence of that then consider that in 1911 before the establishment of an Irish state, Dublin city and county accounted for 15% of the population of the present day twenty-six counties. In Census ’22, the same figure was 28%.
Even that understates the demographic dominance of Dublin as today’s conurbation effectively extends into the surrounding counties. If the Dublin of Joyce and Behan was a compact city largely contained between its canals, its modern counterpart is a low density, car-dependant sprawl defined these days by an orbital motorway commenced in the 1990’s.
However, the thing about the development of Dublin over the last quarter century is that it didn’t just happen of its own accord; it is above all else the result of a particular weighting and concentration of political and economic power in the capital.
It would be wrong to conflate Dublin and Dubliners in general with that power base. Some of Ireland’s poorest and most disaffected people live in Dublin alongside its most powerful. Indeed, many of its ordinary workers – who can usually be found doing long car commutes on the M50 most days – are more like victims than members of some empowered elite.
That elite or Dublin power class continue to wield enormous power. This is a city and a country that works for them. Indeed, it could be said that since the foundation of the Irish state no group has prospered in Ireland quite like this Dublin power class.
If you’re wondering who exactly constitute Dublin’s power class then imagine a Venn diagram whose intersecting circles contain terms such as ‘south Dublin’, ‘Fine Gael’, ‘Irish Times’, ‘Leinster rugby’ etc. These are the cultural and social markers that define a group that has effectively decided on the direction that Dublin and Ireland have taken in recent years.
Governments come and go but like all groups exercising hegemony, the Dublin power class is now more like a permanent administration. It exercises control not just through the political arena but also through its economic and media presence all of which ultimately tend to revolve around the same people and places.
In terms of political orientation, this group is distinctly left of centre and liberal in its public pronouncements although it has a healthy respect for capitalism and the free market especially when it comes to its own financial interests.
If you want evidence of that consider the case of The Irish Times, the defacto paper of record for the Dublin power class. It literally bet the bank in 2006 in acquiring the MyHome property website for a staggering €50m in one of Ireland’s biggest property gambles. These days, the columnists of the same newspaper are more usually obsessing about, of all things, issues like social justice and inequality.
As recently as the 1970’s and 80’s, Dublin still had a largely homogeneous white and Irish population. Yet, for Dublin’s power class, that Dublin was too white, too Catholic and too Irish for its liking. For them, diversity was the holy grail which dictated the shape and direction they had chosen for Dublin and Ireland.
A walk up O’ Connell Street in 2026 will demonstrate just how that has worked out for Dublin. Census ’22 reported that in some areas of Dublin’s North Inner City, the percentage of those born outside the State reached 50% and more. If Dublin’s power class had visions of a diverse city based on Paris in the 1960’s then what it has delivered is more like a city from North Africa complete with the sense of menace that usually goes with that.
Of course, the paradox is that Dublin’s privileged continue to live, by and large, in homogenous settings which usually lack the diversity that they like to preach about. There are exceptions of course – these come in the form of Deliveroo drivers, house cleaners and the like, most of whom operate in the gig economy unlike those they work for.
Yet, the thing that rarely gets talked about in Ireland these days is the mess this Dublin power class has made not just of Dublin but of Ireland over the last quarter century. The metamorphosis of Dublin city from a compact urban settlement into a sprawling low density version of LA has been done largely in order to benefit the interests of these same people.
However, it’s the Irish taxpayer who is usually called on to remediate the planning mess these people have created. The Dublin MetroLink, an 18.8km metro railway much of which will run underground and which will primarily link the city centre with Dublin Airport, is the latest example of this
Most public transport infrastructure has merit and MetroLink is no different. However, post-development infrastructure particularly in a low density urban setting such as Dublin is usually both technically complex and particularly expensive. MetroLink ticks all of these boxes.
In 2022, Dublin’s MetroLink had a projected budget of €9.5bn. By 2026, that had risen to €19bn and that was before construction had even begun. Readers will recall that the still unfinished National Children’s Hospital budget is now running at about four times its original price of €600m. It’s not unreasonable, therefore, to assume that MetroLink will take a similar budgetary trajectory meaning that it could well cost in the region of €40bn.
The strange thing about MetroLink is that no one is claiming that it’s going to fix the near perpetual gridlock on the M50. Indeed, the Minister for Transport who signed off on MetroLink also signed off on lifting the passenger cap at Dublin Airport. This will further boost passenger numbers at an airport which already draws heavily for passengers from Munster, Connacht and Ulster, most of whom will continue to use the same M50.
Is the Dublin MetroLink yet another trophy project for Dublin’s power class? It certainly looks a lot like that. It stems from the deluded notion that Dublin as a capital city needs an underground connection to the airport just like every other European capital. Notions such as these are possible only when power and decision-making is concentrated as it is within the Dublin power class.
So what is the opportunity cost of spending €40bn on Dublin’s MetroLink? In ordinary language, what could this amount of money get you in terms of infrastructure that could actually make a real difference to Dublin and Ireland?
€40bn could probably build a new city in Connacht somewhere within a triangle outlined by the existing urban settlements of Athlone, Galway and Sligo. That is not as outlandish as it might sound like. In fact, it is in keeping with the Project Ireland 2040 report published by the government’s own National Planning Framework in 2018.
Not alone could such a development offer a compact urban settlement of scale, it could also utilise an existing rail connection to Dublin in the east as well as the north/south Western Rail Corridor connecting Sligo to Limerick. Uniquely, this would offer such a development unrivalled rail connections north, south and east to Sligo, Limerick and Dublin respectively. It would also be in close proximity to an existing airport at Knock. With a €40 bn budget, you could probably even include a public transport system especially on a green field site!
But that sort of big picture thinking which could help to revitalise the province of Connacht as well as taking pressure off Dublin and its rolling commuter prairielands is unlikely to impress anyone in the Dublin power class. It remains focused on its MetroLink and the need for affirmation that Dublin really is a capital of international standing.
Dublin’s MetroLink project crystallises a number of themes relating to contemporary Ireland. Firstly, it demonstrates the extent to which Dublin has now effectively become Ireland. Secondly, it demonstrates the hegemonic position of Dublin’s power class in that Ireland.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that neither are in the best interests of Dublin or Ireland.