With Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe departing Leinster House to take up a fancy new job with the World Bank in America, there is now a vacancy that needs to be filled in his constituency of Dublin Central.
The constituency is a four-seater, and is currently represented by Gary Gannon of the Social Democrats, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, and Marie Sherlock of Labour. With Donohoe’s fourth seat now up for grabs, here’s who may be contesting the election.
So far, a number of political parties have confirmed that they will be running a candidate, though they haven’t specified who that candidate will be.
To date, local Cllr. Malachy Steenson, best known for his prominent role in the immigration-critical protests in inner city areas such as East Wall, is the only individual candidate to outright confirm he is running.
Speaking to Gript, he said he would be “running with the intention of winning.”
“In relation to other candidates, I’m not concerned who else is running. We’re standing on my record, and we’ll be running our own campaign.…we have a job to do, and the people will ultimately decide.”
He said that the main issues he would be running on were immigration and housing, which he described as “inextricably linked”.
He also said he didn’t fear the prospect of a “Vote Left, Transfer Left” pact being promoted by Leftwing parties, because he said the natural tendency of Leftwing voters to transfer Left was always present regardless. He also said that in many areas, such as the inner city, voters were more likely to transfer to locals who they knew, rather than along strict political lines.
Asked about other immigration critical parties, such as Independent Ireland, running a candidate in the constituency, Steenson was critical of the idea, and indicated that as “the sitting councillor”, they should not “parachute in” a candidate on top of his campaign.
In the 2024 General Election, Steenson received 2,195 total votes and 4.9% of first preferences, finishing 8th in a 4-seater constituency behind Green Party candidate Neasa Hourigan, Fianna Fáil candidate Mary Fitzpatrick, and notorious Independent Gerry Hutch. He was eliminated on the 6th count.
So far a number of parties have confirmed they’re going to run a candidate, though they haven’t specified who yet. Gript tried to contact many of the speculative candidates, but could not reach many of them for comment.
There is some speculation that local Senator Mary Fitzpatrick may run again, having already run and lost in Dublin Central in previous five elections. While she has name recognition and has been active in the constituency for years, her Dáil hopes have failed to materialise to date. But perhaps sixth time’s the charm?
Analysts generally expect Fine Gael to run the Lord Mayor of Dublin, Cllr. Ray McAdam, who is a councillor in the north inner city who is closely associated with the outgoing Paschal Donohoe. McAdam topped the poll last year in the local election, receiving 11.2% of the vote, making him the obvious candidate choice.
Dublin Central is a vital constituency for Sinn Féin, being the constituency of party leader Mary Lou McDonald. It would seem a natural fit for local Sinn Féin Councillor Janice Boylan to be put forward for the by-election. However, Boylan served as McDonald’s running mate in last year’s general election and bombed, accruing just 3.8% of first preference votes. She was eliminated on the second count with just 1,295 votes to her name, against a quota of 6,551. As a result, the party may wish to try a different local rep, such as Councillor Séamas McGrattan.
The Social Democrats have two councillors in the area, Cat O’Driscoll and Daniel Ennis, both of whom performed credibly in last year’s local election. Of the two, Ennis serves as “Constituency Manager” for local TD Gary Gannon, which may make him the more attractive of the two options.
The Labour Party doesn’t have any local councillors in the constituency, making it difficult to predict who they will run. However, they have confirmed they are running somebody, and while they are happy to cooperate on transfers with other Leftwing parties, they will not be seeking a joint unified Left platform, as was seen during the Presidential campaign for Catherine Connolly.
People Before Profit-Solidarity have no councillors local to the constituency, and have indicated that they are open to the idea of a joint-Left candidate with other parties if somebody suitable emerges.
Independent Ireland have stated that they will be running a candidate and are internally in the process of discussing who that might be. However, the identity of that prospective individual is not yet forthcoming.
There is also speculation that notorious alleged crime boss, Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch, could take a second crack at a seat in the constituency.
Hutch shocked commentators in last year’s general election after he significantly overperformed what was expected of him given his controversial reputation, securing 9.5% of First Preference Votes. For much of the count he appeared to be on course to win a seat, before being overtaken at the eleventh hour by Labour’s Marie Sherlock. It remains unclear if Hutch will attempt to run again.
According to the Irish Times, independent immigration-critical activist Nick Delehanty is also considering a run at the seat.