The AI Revolution is here.
White-collar jobs are on the line.
As IBM chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna recently warned, white-collar professions will be among the first to be dramatically impacted by artificial intelligence.
Generative AI and large language models like ChatGPT will “make every enterprise process more productive”, he noted. In plain English, added Krishna, employers will soon be able to “get the same work done with fewer people. That’s just the nature of productivity. The first set of roles to feel the impact, he concluded, will be “what I call — back office, white-collar work”.
Front office jobs are also on the line. According to a recent Pew report one-fifth of all workers – more specifically, white collar workers – have high-exposure jobs. This means all white collar workers, not just those situated in the US. Yes, including those in Ireland.
A decade from now, white-collar workers around the world will “lose their jobs en masse,” suggest legitimate experts. This includes doctors, airline pilots and judges. By 2035, AI could be running hospitals, airlines, and courtrooms. The world, it seems, will be one big algorithm.
Which begs the question: For people out there, particularly younger readers with their whole lives ahead of them, what should they do?
Learn a skilled trade, I suggest.
As AJung Moon, a computer engineering expert at McGill University in Montreal, Canada, recently reported, jobs that require a literal hands-on human approach – those that require the use of fine motor skills (not just gross motor skills) – should survive the AI-generated storm.
Considering Moon is one of the world’s leading robotics experts, her words carry a great deal of weight.
Now, to the elephant in the room: the skilled trades shortage plaguing Ireland.
The Irish Times and other outlets have raised the alarm on the skills shortages, and how a lack of qualified electricians and plumbers is hampering the country’s building industry. According to The Irish Plant Contractors’ Association (IPCA), there are as many as 2,500 vacancies across the industry. The Construction Industry Federation (CIF), as per the Times, cites labour shortage as one of its biggest concerns.
Why the shortage? Why do so few men (and women) want to learn a skilled trade?
Let’s be honest, there is still a snobbery around skilled trades, with many people viewing them, rather ironically, as unskilled professions. They are something other people do. This kind of thinking needs to stop, and fast. Earlier this year, the Yorkshire Post, a small British newspaper, published an aptly titled piece, Middle-class snobbery about trades is why you can’t get a painter. Across the pond, in Ireland, the headline also applies. Unjustified snobbery is the very reason why you can’t get electricians, bricklayers, plumbers, and painters. Skilled trades are a bit like the priesthood. Most people want and need a priest and a plumber, but very few want to actually become them.
Which brings us to another question: What can be done to change the snobbish mindset?
First off, it’s time for the education system to take a long, hard look in the mirror, and ask if the current method of trying to get as many people into university is still the correct approach. It’s not.
As is clear to see, within a decade, many people with 4-year degrees – especially those in the fields of accounting and finance, law, software, and coding – will find themselves without work.
But for more people to consider skilled trades, professions like carpentry, welding, pipefitting, and hairdressing (would you trust an AI-powered robot to cut your hair?) need to be marketed differently. They need to be included in STEM-based discussions.
STEM skills, we’re told, are critical to the future of Ireland. It’s true. They are.
For the uninitiated, STEM relates to the fields of Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths, and the jobs that rely on the knowledge of these subjects. STEM is not just important; it’s sexy. The youth of Ireland love STEM. This is great news for the skilled trades.
Contrary to popular belief, skilled trades and STEM careers are two sides of the very same coin. The STEM umbrella covers scores—maybe even hundreds—of different jobs. STEM isn’t just for astrophysicists and quantum computists. It’s also for electricians and carpenters. The former, for example, requires a scientific understanding of how electricity functions. If they don’t, disaster awaits. The latter, meanwhile, often require a knowledge of basic mathematics (like algebra and calculus).
What about welders? Again, contrary to popular belief, welding is an art form, an actual science. It involves much more than joining two pieces of metal together. Similarly, plumbing requires much more than easy access to a plunger and the ability to flush a toilet. As for mechanics, the days of some fella sliding out from underneath an Opel Astra, wrench in hand, face and overalls covered in oil, are coming to an end. That’s because the cars of today are very different to the cars of the 1990’s and early 00’s. Today’s vehicles are data-grabbing, supercomputers on wheels. As we enter a driverless word, where cars drive (and crash) themselves, the mechanic’s role will change – drastically so.
Now is the time to start viewing skilled trades in a fresh light. Time is of the essence.