One of the most powerful political forces is inertia: For people who go into their careers, almost always, promising “change”, politicians as a whole are deeply resistant to it once they get into Government and when it comes to their own parties. Change is destabilising and requires facing into uncomfortable truths. If there is an excuse for avoiding uncomfortable truths, politicians will tend to take it.
It is an uncomfortable, and obvious truth for the Government that Helen McEntee as Minister for Justice is a net negative for the Government. It is also perfectly possible, if you are a Fine Gaeler, to simultaneously believe this to be unfair while recognising that it is true.
Step one in any crisis management plan is to recognise that a problem exists. In this case, the problem is blatantly obvious: The sight of the capital city on fire at the tail end of last week is evidence by itself that the Government does not at present have a handle on law and order. You can make any excuse you wish – from blaming the demonic “far right” to saying that the riots were not foreseeable – and it remains true that this happened on the Government’s, and Helen McEntee’s, watch.
It is not the first problem. The Government had to suffer the Minister’s astonishingly ill-judged “inner city walkabout” just a few weeks ago. It has had to suffer through her exceptionally poor stewardship of the Hate Speech Bill – the most prominent piece of legislation in years to find itself unceremoniously pulled from the Oireachtas agenda for want of support. It has had to put up with unconvincing assertions that the capital city is safe, which tend only to make most people believe that the Minister is out of touch.
At some point, sticking with this Minister begins to look as if her record of flubs is not only tolerated, but endorsed.
What’s more, this isn’t just a Government problem. First and foremost, it is a Fine Gael problem. The Taoiseach, even if he wished it, could not sack a Fianna Fáil minister in the morning without causing ructions within the Government. The identity of Fine Gaelers in the cabinet, on the other hand, is a matter entirely for him. Mr. Martin did not appoint her. Neither did Mr. Ryan.
Step two in any crisis management plan is to demonstrate that you have a plan to fix the problems. Again, here, the Government appears to be wallowing in inertia. There was the sight, over the weekend, of two water cannon being “borrowed” from Belfast, in case of future riots. There has been unspecified rumbling about “consequences” for the instigators of the riot. On Friday night, a few anti-social drunks were almost ceremonially battered for the cameras on O’Connell Street in order to showcase the new, baton-armed and no-nonsense Garda approach to lawlessness.
All of this, though, has something of the horse and the stable door to it. If the Gardai could rule O’Connell street with an iron fist on Friday night, then that simply poses the obvious question as to why it could not have been done on previous Fridays. And by itself, on its own face, the new whack-a-hoodie approach is an admission that the previous approach failed entirely.
But, aside from a few arrests and a few thumpings, have you heard anything from Government that indicates a change of approach? Anything resembling a plan?
Step three in crisis management is to win the confidence of the public. Here, I would argue, the Taoiseach could do this, in significant part, by publicly accepting that the performance of his Minister for Justice has thus far been sub-par, and by removing her from that job. He is not short of competent candidates to replace her: Ministers Harris and Humphries, for example, have recently had stints in that job as maternity cover, and performed perfectly adequately.
Sacking the Minister, from the Taoiseach’s view, would demonstrate several things: That he values competence. That he holds the people working for him to account. That he understands public disquiet. That he is willing to make hard, but necessary decisions.
Standing by her, by contrast, sends the opposite message. That he puts personal loyalty to Fine Gael politicians ahead of good government. That he does not believe in accountability. And that he does not really understand public disquiet.
As with all Ministers, the more unpopular the Minister for Justice becomes, the less she will be personally blamed for it and the more people will begin to wonder why the Taoiseach tolerates it.
It’s best, too, to do something when you do not have to do it than to do something when you are forced to do it: By acting today, the Taoiseach would put himself on the front foot. When he’s eventually forced to demote her, it will look like political weakness.
Acting decisively would be in his, and the Government’s best interests. And let’s face it: There has to be a first time for everything.