Here’s a question: Are Ukraine’s western allies getting a bit too cocky?
The US will support Ukraine's definition of victory.
"Crimea and Donbas are Ukraine, and this fact will be of great importance when we decide on further support… But the decision is up to Ukraine," Kristina Kvien, acting US ambassador to Ukraine saidhttps://t.co/2pOtYFVvhv
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 16, 2022
It is, by now, accepted by most sensible commentators that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been, in military terms, a disaster: losses have been substantial, and progress has been minimal. Nowhere along the whole front has Russia managed to gain more than 100km of territory in the almost four months since their invasion began. And in several places – most notably near Kharkiv – the Russians appear to be retreating back into Russia.
Were the war to end with no Russian gains at all, it would be a humiliation on a scale that nobody could have imagined four months ago. But that outcome remains a long way off: It would require significant Ukrainian gains to materialise in the coming months, and for Russia to be so drained of men and resources that it was unable to fight on the defensive (which is easier than fighting on the offensive, as it has been until now).
But for the war to end with the Russians losing territory? How could the Kremlin accept that? And were it to happen with American assistance?
Crimea, of course, is illegally occupied by Russia, and has been since 2014. It is internationally recognised as part of Ukraine. But.
The “but” there is that perhaps nowhere else in Ukraine has a better claim to be Russian. There is basically no dispute that the population of Crimea are relatively content to be part of the Russian motherland, and did not put up much resistance, in either 2014 or since. What’s more, the Russians have invested significantly in Crimea: They built one of the world’s largest bridges connecting the peninsula to mainland Russia, and they’re inordinately proud of it:
📅 4 years ago, the #CrimeanBridge – symbol of #Crimea's reunification with #Russia – was officially opened.
Quick facts:
✅ Built in 4 years by 10 000 specialists.
✅ The longest in Europe – 19 km!
✅ Some 5,3 mln cars traversed the bridge in 2021. pic.twitter.com/kR0A8jQr34— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) May 14, 2022
Crimea, is, in fact, an under-rated cause of the present invasion. Because Russia has no land-bridge directly to Crimea, and is relying entirely on that bridge, Crimea is vulnerable. Part of Russia’s war goals in this invasion, it is generally accepted, was to connect Crimea to Russia by land by seizing Ukraine’s southern coastline from Mariopol to Odessa. Crimea’s ports are a valuable Russian Naval base, and, connected to Russia by land, it would become a massive trade hub.
We are not, in other words, talking about some collection of fields in the back end of nowhere. Losing Crimea would be an enormous blow to the Russians. One they might feel constituted an attack on their territory.
Which poses the question, then, as to whether it is sensible for the west and the United States to encourage the Ukrainians in a campaign to take it back. Yes, those of us outraged by Russia will instinctively cheer them on – who doesn’t, after all, like to see the bully get a bloody nose? – but this remains a bully with a potentially unstable leadership and a discomfortingly large nuclear arsenal.
Rather than pursue the nuclear option, though, it seems more likely that the Russian response would simply be to mobilise their country, and make this already long war into an even longer one, of pure attrition. The Russians, being unlikely and unable to accept defeat, would likely just keep throwing troops and equipment at the Ukrainians – a bonanza for military suppliers, but a tremendous waste of Russian and Ukrainian lives. And then there is the question as to whether the Ukrainians could actually hold Crimea even if they gained it – given that the population, or at least a big chunk of it, appears to consider itself Russian.
Perhaps this is all just a bluff – a warning to the Russians that their dreams of victory in Ukraine are at an end, and the smartest thing to do would be to declare victory now and return to the pre-February borders. That would be the best outcome, probably, for everyone. At least, if your main aim is to see an end to the senseless waste of life currently unfolding in the east. That’s what the Russians should do, really: Take a lesson from the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, declare victory, and go home. Some people, after all, will believe that they really did win.