“Enlargement policy is among the top three priorities of EU leaders.”
That is what EU Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi from Hungary said during a visit to Belgrade, the capital of Serbia last week.
“The only real long-term solution for peace, stability and prosperity is EU membership.”
Enlargement back on EU's agenda at Western Balkans summit https://t.co/0TqpTFRWP0
— Microsoft News (@microsoftnews) December 5, 2022
Várhelyi, who is the EU’s Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement, is not the first EU official to make such remarks. In recent years the bloc’s executive has suggested that certain Balkan nations and other states in Eastern Europe could be suited to future EU membership under the right conditions.
This includes Ukraine, of which EU Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen previously said “they belong to us.”
EU chief Ursula Von Der Leyen has said that she wants Ukraine to join the European Union, claiming that “they belong to us.”
Read now: https://t.co/5DKMp5DMvT#gript pic.twitter.com/6hHAAIGzSn
— gript (@griptmedia) February 28, 2022
Other countries being eyed by Brussels include Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Moldova and more in Europe’s east and south east. Earlier this year, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz even called for current EU member states’ to have their veto removed on who is allowed to join the bloc.
Additionally, Georgia and Albania have been told they may be eligible for candidacy, provided they meet certain requirements laid out by the bloc.
This would potentially have wide-reaching impacts for Ireland specifically, as a significant amount of illegal immigration into Ireland comes from Georgia and Albania, as confirmed by then-Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in 2019.
The Taoiseach has warned that Ireland “cannot tolerate” illegal immigration and insisted the State is increasing security at points of entry.https://t.co/fEANTUxq6x
— NewstalkFM (@NewstalkFM) November 3, 2019
If given EU member-state status, such countries would be given the right to free travel within the Union.
However, some countries are further from potential membership than others.
This June the EU agreed to officially make Moldova and Ukraine formal candidates for membership.
CM @RepGregoryMeeks: Applaud this decision by the EU, and congratulate the Ukrainian and Moldovan people for this tremendous accomplishment.
Today marks an historic moment for Europe, for our shared transatlantic future and for democracy. https://t.co/kZx67eSdob
— House Foreign Affairs Committee Dems (@HouseForeign) June 23, 2022
In August, the following month, the EU began negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia. Additionally, the European Commission advised that Bosnia should be given candidate status.
Kosovo is somewhat further away, and has only completed the first step – signing a Stabilisation and Association Agreement. This state will formally apply for the status of candidate later this year.
EU officials have taken a keen interest in these nations and regions in recent years, as it is believed that their proximity and historical ties to Russia risks them falling under the influence of the Kremlin as tensions rise between East and West.
Last week NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg claimed that the West supporting Moldova, Georgia and Bosnia was vital “for stability in the whole of the Western Balkans.”
However, there are certain complications with the proposed candidates, such as between Serbia and Kosovo.
Kosovo was formerly a Serbian province that broke away and declared independence in 2008, leading to ongoing tensions between the two regions. Serbia does not recognise Kosovo’s independence or the legitimacy of its state, raising fears of violence and conflict between the two jurisdictions.
Fears Kosovo-Serbia number plate row could spark violence https://t.co/NFnZgKq6jO
— The Guardian (@guardian) November 22, 2022
The Balkans states have historically been known for being rife with ethnic and political turbulence, experiencing a bloody war during the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, which killed over 100,000 and displaced millions.
Additionally, Serbia’s president Aleksandar Vučić has refused to explicitly condemn Russia, or join European sanctions against the Kremlin, potentially indicating a difference in foreign policy objectives between his country and European leaders.
It’s unclear what Russia’s reaction would be to these states coming under the fold of the West. Many analysts believe that the primary reason for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and cosying up the Western powers, which the Kremlin believed to be a provocation on its border.