Last Thursday, after surveying the wreckage of the Great British Welfare system I explained how Chancellor Rachel Reeves had taken out the chainsaw and started slashing through benefits, taking the money off the blind children, having already stolen the winter fuel allowance from the elderly.
I said that the Illegal Immigration Industrial complex, specifically the bill to house all the illegal immigrants who literally break into the UK without permission, will never be cut. That will remain untouched.
I warned that Ireland was not immune to the old chainsaw and that promised tax-cuts might well be shelved should Trump’s tariff fandango go through. I said:
“So promised tax cuts are already on the chopping block. Next the Irish government will start wielding the chainsaw and who knows what benefit will get cut – a little off child benefit here, shaving something off disability benefit there. But like the UK, you can rest assured as to what will not be cut. The millions paid to the good upstanding folks who out of the kindness of their hearts offer to turn your local hotel, such as Carna Bay Hotel, into accommodation for “international protection applications” and send on the invoice to the Irish taxpayer.”
And surely as night follows day I picked up my Irish version of the Sunday Times yesterday and boom the headline was: “Welfare rises and tax cuts at risk from tariffs.” Told you so. I really am that good.
The headline in the online version is slightly different: Trump tariffs and trade war threaten welfare rises and tax cuts. Tánaiste seeks allies to ensure EU response minimises damage to Irish economy.
We are informed, “Key pledges made in the programme for government could be put on hold as the coalition prepares a new emergency plan to protect Ireland from a looming global trade war.” It goes on, “Members of the cabinet have been warned that tariffs on Ireland’s pharmaceutical export sector could result in supply chains being moved, investment decisions being paralysed and corporation tax revenues falling. The warnings have spooked ministers, who believe that some of the promises made in the programme for government, including around tax cuts and welfare increases, could be put on hold in the worst-case scenario.” No final decisions have been made yet.
Do you know what wasn’t on the chopping board: the cost of housing international protection applicants. That wasn’t mentioned. Surprise!!
Don’t worry though, everyone should just calm the hell down. Because over on the next page the headline was, Asylum-seeker housing to be cut in line with deportations. Goodness is that so? Tell me more. It’s like they anticipated the likes of little old Laura complaining that welfare might be cut, taxes increased but the cost of housing the illegal immigrants will be untouched. I like to think of them there in government positively terrified about what I’ll write next.
Anyway, tell me more about these cuts. The online piece is here.
They come out swinging in the first line: “The government is planning to scale back plans for accommodation centres to house asylum seekers, on the basis that increased deportations, coupled with a more streamlined asylum decision- making process, will reduce demand for beds and free up existing capacity.”
Increased deportations – that’s music to my ears. What kind of numbers are we talking about?
“Since January, the minister has signed 1,008 deportation orders — a sharp acceleration compared with previous years.”
The folks there at the Department of Justice have the crystal ball out and tell us “If the pace continues, the number of deportation orders by the end of the year would exceed 4,000, representing a projected increase of nearly 70 per cent on the 2,403 signed in 2024.”
Signed. Do you know how many deportations were actually carried out of that 2,403 in 2024? 134. That’s right – one hundred and thirty four people were actually removed from the country of all the people who entered this country and have no right to be here.
What kind of numbers are we talking here, Laura. Well, “There are almost 33,000 international protection applicants being accommodated across Ireland in Ipas centres, about 9,000 of whom are children living with their families. The annual cost of providing accommodation is now in excess of €3 billion.”
So Mystic Meg over there at the Department of Justice with it’s great and glorious leader Minister Jim O’Callaghan TD, have crunched the numbers and the best case scenario they have come up with and handily briefed the Sunday Times is that the most deportation orders that will be signed – that’s just signed now – will be 4,000.
And how many, dear reader, do you think of those 4,000 will be whizzed back to whatever Godforsaken country they came from courtesy of Ryanair? You know once they get past the army of lawyers out there and the Supreme Court, and the right to private life, the new stand-alone child’s right to be with daddy that has resulted from that child right’s referendum that was passed a few years ago although no one mentioned the immigration implications?
Well of the 2,400 deportation orders signed in 20204, 134 were carried out. So let’s double that if we think 4,000 deportation orders will be signed this year 2025. That’s 268. About two hundred and sixty eight people who have no right to be in this country will no longer be in this country by year end. Let’s call it an even 300. 300 people of the 33,000 international protection applicants will no longer be housed in Ireland. Someone give me that in percentage..
And THIS we are told is going to result in cuts to the asylum-seeker housing bill. Do the folks down at the Sunday Times and the minions in the Department for Justice really expect me to take this headline seriously?
Listen, I don’t believe it rains because Our Lady is crying up there in heaven. Nor do I believe a rotund man in a red suit is going to sort my children’s Christmas gifts out. And I don’t believe for one second that the asylum bill will be cut in any meaningful way.
Promised rises in welfare – you know they are at risk. Promised tax-cuts, unlikely to happen and they will lay all the blame on President Trump. And fine they can do that if they want. But the annual cost of 3 billion Euros in providing accommodation to ‘international protection applicants’ you know that will keep rising.
I am very good at predicting things: so you can take that one, to the bank.