Just 50 percent of Gen Z will ever marry based on current trends, according to a new briefing note from pro-family think tank, the Iona Institute.
The paper, titled The Collapse of Marriage Among Gen Z, projects based on CSO data that only 52 percent of Gen Z Irish women and 50 percent of Gen Z Irish men (defined as those born from 1995 onwards) will ever marry.
This is compared to approximately 72 percent of Millennials born in 1980; 78 percent of Gen Xers born in 1970; and 85 percent of ‘Baby Boomers’ born in 1960.
The analysis found that each succeeding age group starting with those born in 1960 has been less likely to marry than the one that came before.
According to the Iona Institute, marriage rates have suffered a particular collapse among those aged 25-29 and under. Only 12 percent of Gen Z are married by their mid-to-late 20s, compared to the 57 percent of people who were born in 1960 (Boomer) and were married by the time they were 30.
Meanwhile, 49 percent of people born in 1965 (Gen X) were married by the time they were 25-29.
The paper comes ahead of the second part of the documentary series, ‘Ireland’s Population Crash’, which is due to air on RTÉ tonight.
The think tank observed that Ireland’s overall marriage rate is already at its “lowest ever level” (excluding during Covid lockdowns) at 3.5 marriages per thousand people per year, which it said is about “half the rate back in the 1970s”.
Commenting on the figures, Professor Patricia Casey said that the situation is “major and unprecedented”.
“The previous assumption that parents could once safely make, namely that one day their children will marry, can no longer be made,” she said, adding that the “old milestones we could take for granted can no longer be taken for granted”.
“Whether people are delaying getting married out of choice or because of economic circumstances, or both, the fact remains that Ireland’s marriage rate is plunging,” Professor Casey said.
The professional psychiatrist linked the fall in marriages to the fall in birth rates, which she said are also at their lowest ever level at 1.5 children per woman.
“Even though many babies are now born outside marriage, nonetheless, marriage and birth rates tend to fall in tandem.”
Earlier this year, the Iona Institute published a separate paper projecting that based on current trends, one in four members of Gen Z will likely never have children. That report found that whereas just 13.5 percent of women born in 1955 (‘Baby Boomers’) were childless by the time they turned 45, almost a quarter (24.2 percent) of Gen Z women were likely to be childless by the time they reached that age.
That report, Choice or Circumstance? Rising Childlessness in Ireland, highlighted multiple causes of rising childlessness, including later marriage (or no marriage at all) which was described as being among the “most significant structural drivers”.
Despite the rising levels of childlessness, a 2022 poll commissioned by the Iona Institute found that 85 percent of people want to have at least two children, while only two percent expressed a wish for no children, the results not being affected greatly by age category.
“Ireland is now entering totally uncharted waters and needs to have a serious, society-wide debate about what is happening,” Professor Casey concluded.