The recent admission by the Tánaiste Simon Harris that immigration has been excessive is undoubtedly cynical, but should be welcomed for two reasons.
Firstly, in contrast to a similar admission by the insufferable Leo Varadkar, Harris has stated the obvious while still in office, and is in a position to fix the problem his actions have helped to cause.
Secondly, Harris did not focus his comments on the asylum system, but went further. “More broadly, are migration numbers too high outside of international protection?” Harris asked. “I think they are as well.”
The volte-face by Harris and others is a modern case of liberals being mugged by reality.
Ireland’s political elite could not stand against the Irish electorate forever. An Amárach poll in 2024 found that 79% of people believe that immigration is too high, compared to just 2% who believe it is too low.
The scale of the recent influx is truly remarkable. In the 12 months to April 2025, more than 125,000 people immigrated.
Less than a quarter were returning Irish nationals, and the number of EU citizens arriving (25,300) was dwarfed by the number of non-EU/UK nationals moving here (63,600). Almost two people are entering the country for every one person leaving it.
We are seeing the consequence of this as communities are transformed, housing supply tightens and property prices rise.
The Taoiseach now admits what most in the public have long known: the overwhelming majority of asylum seekers are economic migrants. But even if the asylum crisis were to be suddenly solved tomorrow and the 33,000 international protection applicants in state-provided accommodation were to depart, we would still be in great difficulty.
He and the Tánaiste agree that something should be done, and hopefully it will be, because here is the most important fact of all.
For reasons beyond our control, we are likely to see a massive increase in immigration to Europe in the coming decades.
In the area of migration, the host region which receives large numbers of migrants is impacted by conditions in the sending regions near to it.
When Europe’s source of labour on the EU’s continental peripheries dries up, it is logical to believe that the main sending regions of the future will be Africa, with the Middle East and Asia also featuring.
Europe is prosperous economically and decaying demographically. Africa, in contrast, is vastly poorer and is experiencing a population boom unlike any other continent.
Around 283 million people lived in Africa in 1960. Today, the continent is home to more than 1.5 billion people, and the UN predicts that this could rise to almost 2.5 billion by 2050.
The same situation is not evident in Asia, where fertility rates have fallen significantly, even in the Islamic region. As a result, emigration from Asia will likely level off in the coming decades, but emigration from Africa will accelerate.
Africa has made many economic strides in recent decades, but not enough jobs are being created, and many of them will not pay enough to allow people to provide for themselves and their families.
The desire to emigrate clearly already exists to an enormous degree. A Gallup study in 2023 showed that 37% of adults in sub-Saharan Africa wanted to migrate, with outright majorities in countries such as Nigeria expressing this wish.
Added to Europe’s enticing pull factors are Africa’s obvious push factors.
Poverty and demographic pressures are only part of this. Many African countries are experiencing intractable military conflicts, to the point of outright state collapse. The situation in the Sahel region is arguably worse than in the sub-Saharan region.
Efforts by France and other nations to subdue the Islamist threat in Mali and elsewhere have been unsuccessful, and if other nations go the same way as Libya, it will likely lead to an acceleration in emigration.
Then there is the impact of climate change, which will likely be harsher in Africa than in Europe.
A perfect storm may be brewing. African emigrants already depart in large numbers to North America, the Middle East and elsewhere, but geography dictates that Europe will increasingly become the destination of choice.
One of the most positive global developments in recent decades has been the decline in extreme poverty, with a billion people moving out of that condition between 1990-2014 alone.
Rising prosperity in Africa will not prevent an exodus, however.
One of the most counterintuitive realities about emigration is that it increases as very poor countries grow wealthier. That is made clear by the Dutch Professor Hein de Haas in his influential 2023 book, ‘How Migration Really Works.’
While studying migration patterns from Morocco to Europe, de Haas saw how increased earnings and expanded education made people more likely to leave. “The paradox is that emigration is generally higher in countries and regions that have already achieved a certain level of economic development, urbanisation and modernisation,” he wrote.
This makes sense. After all, it costs a lot of money to move countries, whether that be through legal or illegal migration. Many more people will have the means to do this soon.
Where does this leave Ireland?
On immigration, the government is starting to both sound and act tough, but for the wrong reasons.
A perfect example is the announcement that the government is likely to introduce longer waiting times for citizenship for refugees along with stricter rules on family reunification for migrants.
This is the right decision – the 22,000 family visa applications received in 2024 was a substantial increase on the previous year’s figure.
Yet the impetus for these sensible moves is not Ireland’s self-interest, but the government’s realisation that tougher rules introduced by Keir Starmer’s Labour government could trigger an influx if Ireland does not change its policies in turn.
As Justice Minister O’Callaghan puts it, he is “committed to ensuring that Ireland is not viewed more favourably than the UK by those seeking to claim asylum.”
The UK is far from the only country whose immigration policies we need to be conscious of when constructing our own. Being English-speaking and prosperous, Ireland is one of the most attractive countries in the EU, and if immigration from Africa or elsewhere does increase significantly in the coming decades, we will experience its full effects.
The government remains slow to recognise what all this means, or to craft a long-term policy to bring immigration numbers down to a manageable level while integrating those we do admit.
Our politicians continue to be reactive, for fear of being called reactionary.
If FFG was serious about reducing immigration, they would take further steps which have nothing to do with the British government’s approach. That would involve getting off the fence at EU level and joining the Danish-led coalition trying to tighten Europe’s borders and introduce ‘external processing’ – which is the only long-term solution to the asylum crisis.
It would also involve introducing a points-based system for determining how many work visas are distributed each year, and what the grounds should be for acquiring one.
Most importantly of all, it would involve having a difficult but necessary conversation about the benefits of prioritising immigrants from countries which are culturally similar to Ireland, ie, those which are predominantly Christian.
Immigration is a reality of life, and will continue to be. Many immigrants from Africa and elsewhere have contributed enormously to Ireland and this process should continue, but under the right conditions, and at acceptable levels.
Ireland can afford to be picky and should try to attract the best newcomers available, in a world where the number of potential arrivals is massively larger than our own numbers.
If we are to cope with future challenges in this area, we need to start thinking about the long-term realities, while balancing the generosity of often saying ‘Welcome’ with the courage of often saying ‘No.’