We started the week with poll analysis, and, thanks to the Irish Times’ relationship with IPSOS-MRBI, we get to end the week with poll analysis as well.
Put side by side, the Red C/Sunday Business Post and Irish Times/MRBI numbers are interesting in terms of where they differ, and where they disagree. Red C, for example, gives Fine Gael a decent but still underwhelming 23% of the vote – the Irish Times by contrast gives them 27%.
That 4% is not massively significant in numerical terms, but would likely be very significant in terms of seats. In the Irish electoral system, there’s a decent-sized seat bonus that comes from being the largest party by a decent margin, and therefore a Fine Gael lead of 7% over their nearest challengers, and 27% of the vote nationally, could put the party in the range of high fifties to even sixty seats.
By contrast, the two polls are broadly in agreement about Sinn Fein and Fianna Fáil, with both parties on 18% in one poll and 20% in the other. Labour, Greens, and the Soc Dems split 12% evenly between them in Red C, and 15% slightly less evenly between them in the MRBI poll. The broad picture remains the same, though, with 12-15% of the electorate wedded to those three parties and their essentially identical policies.
The big difference between the two polls – and the one that likely explains the difference in the Fine Gael vote – is that Red C have Aontú and Independent Ireland at a combined 8%, while MRBI have Aontú at 1% and Independent Ireland not listed at all, and presumably included in the Independents. For Red C, Independents plus Aontú plus Independent Ireland works out at a combined 23%: For MRBI, those three groups combine for just 16%. That one difference between the two polls makes an enormous difference in terms of their likely electoral impact.
As to which, if either, is correct, we can only guess.
The more significant number in the MRBI poll – and the one that surely gives the pollster confidence that its party numbers are correct – is the satisfaction rating for Simon Harris. A full 55% of those polled said they were satisfied or better with the performance of the Taoiseach, which makes him the most popular politician in the country (in this poll) by some distance. The same figure for Mary Lou McDonald is just 30%, by contrast.
This is significant. Readers old enough or nerdy enough to recall the 2020 election campaign will surely remember that McDonald’s performance in the three-way debates with Martin and Varadkar was widely viewed as crucial in her party’s over-performance on election day. Set against two leaders who had been around a while, she was able to present herself as the proverbial breath of fresh air, and the most popular individual out of the three on stage. In the upcoming election, if that same pattern holds, Simon Harris will simply enter those debates as the better liked and more popular candidate. The fact that he is also a sharp and capable debater will make McDonald’s (and Martin’s) task even more difficult.
The problem for opposition parties, large and small – and also for Fianna Fáil and the Greens – is that they have not, as yet, found a compelling narrative against Harris personally. To put this in crude terms, the problem for his opponents is that voters just seem to like Simon Harris, and his opponents need to find a way – in the absence of making themselves more likable – to make voters re-consider their attraction to the Taoiseach.
In some senses, this is all very similar to the problems that Donald Trump is having against his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris. Watching that election, it’s hard not to be struck by the sheer frustration Trump allies appear to feel watching the Vice President – who has served as the second most senior official in an unpopular administration – getting away with casting herself as the candidate of change and a fresh start.
Yet there are obvious reasons why this is working for the American Harris: her opponent has been around longer than she has, and she feels “newer” by comparison. Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald are going to have a similar problem in the upcoming election with the Irish Harris. Both of them will be holdovers from the last election: The Fine Gael leader will be the “young, fresh” voice on stage. Both Harris’s, not coincidentally, will largely benefit from a media that is addicted to the cause of young(er) liberal candidates.
It is not my job to advise the Taoiseach’s opponents (and they likely wouldn’t take my advice anyway) but to beat him, I think they are likely going to have to make their criticisms personal. His vulnerabilities are there and on his record: Scoliosis, for example – if by voting day every voter in the country cannot recite his broken promise to fix Scoliosis in 2017, then his opponents will not have done their job. The narrative against Harris – the only one I think might work – should be that he talks a good game but has never really delivered anything of substance, and that he over-promises and under-delivers. Or, in perhaps more plain language, that he’s a spoofer.
As things stand, though, with the proviso that they can change quickly, the Taoiseach is going to cruise to re-election, and an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in Government for Fine Gael. If his opponents want to change that, then they’ll need to get their acts in gear.