If you have a son, or a daughter, approaching the age when the opposite sex (or, in these enlightened times, any one of the 43 genders) starts to capture their attention, and want to give them some really good life advice, might we suggest this: “don’t settle for anything less than somebody who loves you as much as the National Public Health Emergency Team loves a spot of lockdown”:
The Government has been warned that lifting restrictions too early could cause another wave of Covid-19 lasting into the summer.
In a stark warning delivered to Ministers on Monday night by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet), the Government was told that while the Irish vaccination programme is progressing relatively well by European standards, there is nowhere near enough protection at a population level in order to substantially relax restrictions.
However, if a four-to-eight week period of caution is observed, risks could be reduced by between 50 and 70 per cent. The advice is being considered by Government.
Note the phrasing of the bit in bold. It’s very important.
Four to eight weeks, potentially, takes us up to June, substantially locked down. We’re likely to hear today about some minimal lifting of restrictions – construction, hopefully, might be allowed to re-open, and people who like sports might be allowed to play them, and those of us who enjoy walks might be allowed to walk for five point two kilometers without putting yourselves at odds with the long arm of the law.
But note the phrasing. The risks might be reduced by 50 to 70 per cent.
In other words, what NPHET is saying is that by June, the risks will still be high. As sure as today is Tuesday, when June comes around, they’ll be angling for a spot more lockdown, just to be on the safe side.
And of course, what’s going to happen is this: A small-scale re-opening now, which includes, of course, a full re-opening of schools, will, in fact, lead to a rise in cases. The Government, in their complete foolishness, aren’t able to see this ahead of time and manage expectations, and the message. So, what will happen is that in two or three weeks, we’ll get a day or two of cases above 1,000, and the zero-covid people, and the opposition, will be up in arms. “We re-opened too early”, they’ll say, and the media will amplify them, and the Government will, probably, cower.
The correct message, of course, is “open and be damned”. What the Taoiseach should do, but won’t, is address the nation tonight and tell us that while re-opening the country will indeed result in more cases, it is economically and societally necessary to do so. Over time, with vaccinations, case numbers will fall. Protecting ourselves and our families from the risk of contracting Coronavirus, he should tell us, is our own responsibility, and an important part of freedom.
The argument against doing this was much stronger a year ago, before the advent of the vaccine. Lockdown, remember, was supposed to protect the vulnerable. Protecting the vulnerable is now the job of the vaccination programme. If you are vulnerable, he should say, “wait until you are offered, and receive, a vaccine, before putting yourself in risky situations”. And if you don’t want one, well, that’s your choice, but you know the risks.
But of course, that would mean taking a brave and courageous decision. And if the country had wanted a Taoiseach known for making brave and courageous decisions, they wouldn’t have elected a guy whose middle names might as well be “commission another report”.
Speaking of brave and courageous decisions, Texas saw its first, very minor, rise in Covid cases this week since the decision of the Governor to end all restrictions, including the mask mandate: Cases rose from a seven day average of 3,898 a week ago to an average of 4,005 on Sunday. That might be statistical noise, or it might be the beginning of something. But if a surge is coming in Texas, it hasn’t come yet, and they’ve had three weeks of freedom in the meantime.
Why can’t we have that in Ireland? Who, after all, elected NPHET?