As bad as the new Red C/Sunday Business Post opinion poll is for Fianna Fáil the headline figures are not actually that obviously terrible. 14% nationally is still the stuff of nightmares for the party that has dominated Irish politics since the 1930’s, but it actually represents a slight increase on the previous version of this poll:
🚨POLL🚨
Red C / Sunday Business Post
FG: 29% (-1)
SF: 29% (+2)
FF: 14% (+1)
SD: 5% (nc)
GP: 5% (+1)
LP: 3% (-2)
AÚ: 2% (nc)
S-PBP: 2% (nc)
I/O: 11% (-1)29 May 2021
+/- 28 April 2021 pic.twitter.com/dBzFHEQQ33— Ireland Votes | #Vote2024 (@Ireland_Votes) May 29, 2021
The true horror story comes in the regional and internal numbers in the poll.
The party is just 7% amongst people aged 35-54 – the age group that votes the most, and generally dominates public debate in most democracies. It is at just 16% with the very youngest voters. Even with the very oldest voters – those aged 55 and above – Fianna Fáil is at just 18%. That last figure is significant, because those aged 55 and over will have voted as long ago as the 1987 election. In other words, that is a group of voters who regularly gave Fianna Fáil more than 40% of the vote.
Regionally, Fianna Fáil has lost half of its support in Munster, where Micheál Martin comes from. It won 26% in Munster a year ago – and it is polling at just 14% today. The figures are no better anywhere else. In Dublin the loss of support is less pronounced – down just 3% on the General Election, but the party was already at a historic nadir of support in the capital. 10% in Dublin means that we can be fairly sure that Cllr. Deirdre Conroy will not be troubling the scorers in the Dublin Bay South bye election.
On the most important issues in society, too, the party’s numbers are terrible. Just 11% of voters say they trust Fianna Fáil to fix the housing crisis. 12% trust them on health. 12% trust them on the economy.
Critically, just 12% trust them on the Covid pandemic.
To the extent that people are willing to credit the Government for anything at the moment, they are crediting Fine Gael, not Fianna Fáil, which is the party leading the Government, and the Government’s response to covid, housing, health, and the economy.
The problem for Fianna Fáil is this: What is the realistic way out of this death spiral?
With voters apparently determined to hold FF responsible for the Government’s failures, and credit Fine Gael for any successes they credit the Government with, it is not immediately obvious that an economic upturn, an end to the pandemic, or a surge in house-building will actually benefit Mr. Martin’s party. Voters have apparently determined that this is a Fine Gael Government, not a Fianna Fáil one, and the party is now in a position where it cannot oppose, and cannot, apparently, benefit.
We’ve made this point before on Gript, but the issue, it seems to us, is that the party just lacks any distinct identity of its own, as its latest ad for Dublin Bay South seems to confirm. Fine Gael and Labour are battling over social policy. Fianna Fáil is reminding people that “Deirdre” is a nice name:
The History of Deirdre has just been released. #TeamDeirdre @DeirdreKellyFF @DeirdreHeney @ODonovanDeirdre @DeirdreGSmith @Deecul
@DeirdreOBrienCC @DeirdreConroyIE pic.twitter.com/uvkoyaNDrM— Jim O'Callaghan TD (@OCallaghanJim) May 30, 2021
The other problem for the party is this: Though almost every FF elected official will tell you, in private, that it is time for a leadership change, they simply lack any obvious heir apparent. Jim O’Callaghan has been the name touted for ages, but Mr. Martin, who is no fool, cleverly appointed him director of elections for Dublin Bay South, and TDs have thus far been treated to an underwhelming campaign. If the party trails home in fourth or fifth, there will be a real worry that if they elect O’Callaghan leader, they might suffer the humiliation of having their leader lose his own seat at the election.
And so, on they limp. In Government, but gaining no credit or sympathy for it. A party with no identity, and nothing to contribute to the new shape of Irish politics, which is polarisation between Fine Gael and Sinn Fein.
It would no longer be a shock if Fianna Fáil was not around in a decade.