Independent Senator Michael McDowell has said that he is “confident” both of the upcoming March 8th referendums will be defeated “by a substantial majority,” despite recent polls indicating that they will pass.
The upcoming referendums both propose to modify Article 41 of the Irish constitution, and involve two proposals, both of which seem set to pass comfortably according to an Irish Times/Ipsos poll released last week.
One referendum seeks, in part, to redefine the family as not being based merely on marriage, but marriage or another “durable relationship.” According to the Irish Times poll, 53% of those polled said they intended to vote ‘Yes’, with just 15% saying they planned to vote ‘No’, 27% saying they were undecided, and 5% saying they did not intend to vote.
The other referendum seeks to modify the provision in the Constitution which says that women’s contributions to society by their work in the home is important, and that they should not be forced to work by “economic necessity.” It is being proposed that this should be made more “gender neutral,” and replaced with a more general affirmation of “care” in the home between relatives.
According to the Irish Times poll, 60% of respondents said they would vote ‘Yes’ to this proposal, with 12% saying they would vote ‘No’, 23% saying they were undecided, and 5% saying they would not vote.
Clear majority of voters intend to vote Yes in both referendums, poll shows https://t.co/8Zdq3tpxk6
— The Irish Times (@IrishTimes) February 9, 2024
However, in an exclusive interview with Gript this week, Senator Michael McDowell said he was “confident” both referendums would be defeated despite this polling.
“I’m confident it’ll be defeated by a substantial majority,” he said, adding that “anybody who relies on opinion polls” should remember the referendum to abolish the Seanad in 2013, which was ultimately defeated.
On that occasion, an Irish Times/Ipsos poll a week before the referendum found 44% of likely voters intended to vote in favour of scrapping the Seanad, with only 27% wanting it retained. However, on the day, the result was far closer, with 51.7% voting to retain the house, and 48.2% voting to scrap it.
“The Irish Times published a poll which showed it sailing through, and the participants in the poll said they were sure to vote on the day,” McDowell said.
“The Seanad was saved, and I’m convinced that on this occasion, it’s the people who care who will come out to vote.”
Pointed out that, according to the newest Irish Times poll, better informed voters were more likely to vote no.
“The people who are determined not to be bamboozled by the government will come out to vote, and the great majority of people at the moment have limited access to the underlying facts and to what it’s all about,” he said.
“But the Irish Times itself conceded that the more people knew, the more likely they were to be ‘No’ voters.”
The Senator said that those who were more aware of the referendums’ consequences would be more motivated to turn out on the day.
“I’m not just relying on apathy,” he said.
“I’m relying on people who do understand the issue and who have made themselves aware of the issues and all the implications, being determined to vote ‘No’ – and people who are only vaguely aware of the misinformation that the government ministers are putting out, saying, ‘I don’t really care.’”
The full Gript interview with Senator McDowell can be viewed below.