It is understandable enough that the weekly updates produced by the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) on the state of what remains of the Covid 19 pandemic are not, in general, widespread bedtime reading in Ireland. Nevertheless, they are important indicators of the threat posed by the coronavirus at any given time. And the most recent one strongly underlines why the decision by the Irish Government last week to lift most (but not all) restrictions was, if anything, too conservative.
Here is what they say:
As of 20 January 2022, the Omicron variant has been identified in all EU/EEA countries. From 20 December 2021 to 9 January 2022, there were 23 EU/EEA countries with adequate sequencing volume that reported an estimated prevalence of Omicron VOC of 69.4%. Across studies from various settings, the risk of hospitalisation has been found to be lower for Omicron than for the Delta VOC. However, prior immunity from natural infection, vaccination including booster doses, and improved treatment options contribute to less severe outcomes, making it challenging to estimate the inherent risk of severe infection for Omicron. While studies have used slightly different data, analysis approaches and adjustments for confounding factors, most studies found risk reduction in the range of 50-60%. Still, among Omicron cases reported to TESSy, 1.14% were hospitalised, 0.16% required ICU admission/respiratory support, and 0.06% died. Early studies suggest that current vaccines may be less effective against Omicron infection, although they still provide protection against hospitalisation and severe disease. Given the exponential growth advantage of Omicron and the high numbers of cases, any potential benefits of a lower observed severity can be outpaced by the sheer number of severe outcomes over time.
A case fatality rate of 0.06% is very significant. Why? Because the case fatality rate for normal, bog-standard influenza is… about 0.1%:
Globally, for seasonal influenza, the WHO estimates the mortality rate is usually below 0.1%.
So, in other words, in terms of the risk of death, Omicron is now about, or below, the same as the flu, at least in Europe.
What about the hospitalisation rate? Well, with Covid, per the ECDC, it is now 1.14%. It is much harder to work out the hospitalisation rate for flu for the simple reason that the vast majority of flu cases go unreported. Think about it: You don’t go to your doctor with flu unless it is really very bad. But the US Center for Disease control estimates that it is around 0.15% – so still a lot lower than for Covid. But again, no adjustment is made here for the number of people in hospital with covid, versus the number in hospital because of covid.
Overall, the figures paint a picture of an increasingly mild, decreasingly lethal illness on a par with the flu itself, if not less lethal, in fact.
This is probably as good an outcome as could ever have been hoped for, in the long war on Covid 19. Really, at this stage, there is no case left for any restrictions at all, other than the comfort they provide to those who are struggling to process the idea that covid is here forever, and will not be going away.
Those people though, in time, will have to face the new reality alongside the rest of us.