It is dangerous to make predictions about anything as volatile as a by-election for a Dáil seat, but we can probably say one thing with about 99% confidence: Gerry “The Monk” Hutch will not be the next TD for Dublin Central.
That prediction, to be clear, is not based on his popularity, but on the electoral system. If Ireland used the same system that delivered victory to the UK (INSERT) party in Gordon and Denton last night, The Monk would be worth a long-shot outside bet. For all he would have to do is win the most votes, which is certainly within the range of possible outcomes depending on turnout and so forth. But in Dublin Central, he would need to accumulate more than 50% of all votes cast in order to win the seat, once transfers from his predominantly left-wing opponents are piled up.
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