Years of assurances by the Irish government to cattle farmers could shortly be blown out of the water as senior EU figures insisted this week that the bloc was fast-tracking the signing of the Mercosur trade deal with Latin America despite a wave of agrarian discontent.
Media reports describe how European Commission officials met in secret in Brussels throughout this week as political insiders described how Eurocrats intend to finalise the deal in early December at a summit in Uruguay.
The Mercosur deal, which has been in the works for over twenty years before picking up steam in the late 2010s, envisions the dropping of 90% of tariffs between the EU bloc, including Ireland, and Brazil – allowing greater market access between the two continents under a shared regulatory framework.
The Irish government has so far taken an ambiguous stance on the deal as farmers took to the media this week to outline the risk that cheap imports pose to what is essentially a healthy industry already feeling the regulatory impact of strict nitrate quotas.
Pointing to environmental concerns in the Amazon, political turmoil within Latin America, and oversupply fears from European farmers, the deal has repeatedly been rejected by Irish farming groups such as the IFA, which warned about the impact of cut-price Brazilian imports on Irish market dominance.
Arguing that EU and Irish government participation in Mercosur fundamentally discredits the supposedly green credentials of both entities, President of the ICMSA dairy association Denis Drennan outlined that Brussels is open about the damage the deal will do to Irish industry.
“On one hand, the EU wants to load more regulation on its own farmers in the name of sustainability and on the other, it appears happy to conclude a deal that will see lower-standard beef enter the EU market with little regard for the environment,” he said.
In Brussels, attempts to push through Mercosur are spearheaded by the Spanish government that favours economic integration with Latin America despite stiff resistance from protectionist French farmers, well known for their disproportionate influence on the EU CAP scheme.
President Macron was forced to reverse his previous support for the Mercosur deal earlier this year following flash tractor protests that encircled Paris briefly as French Prime Minister Michel Barnier voiced opposition to the rushing through of the deal outside the EU Commission headquarters.
The geopolitics of the Mercosur deal and the sudden reason why it is suddenly rising up on the political agenda was explained in the European Parliament by soon-to-be top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas who warned that if Europe didn’t cultivate economic ties with Latin America then China would.
Away from Brussels farming groups took their anger against Mercosur to the doors of Leinster House with some farming groups already lobbying for financial compensation schemes for cattle farmers in the event of Mercosur being implemented from 2027 onward.
Even if signed next month in Uruguay Mercosur faces an arduous task to be fully implemented requiring approval from the Oireachtas, the EU Parliament, and all 26 member states before a phased rollout.
Not quite rejecting the deal outright, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin said that the Mercosur agreement in its current form was unacceptable to Ireland at a meeting of the IFA National Council, with a Fine Gael MEP also accusing the EU of imposing “environmental double standards” on Irish producers.
Any passing of Mercosur is likely to be seen as a massive symbolic blow to Irish prestige in Brussels with the farming industry seen as being one of the only coherent lobbies Dublin has within EU policymaking circles.
With Irish-EU relations already reeling from the fallout of the Apple tax ruling, the pro-Israel stance of Commission President von der Leyen, as well as Ireland falling in Brussels’ list of priorities post-Brexit. Signs point to a more fraught era of our relationship with Europe with Mercosur perhaps just one of many speedbumps on the way.