Independent Ireland, the political party led by Cork TD Michael Collins, was scheduled to meet this afternoon with Catherine Connolly, left-wing candidate for the Presidency of Ireland, who already has the enthusiastic backing of People before Profit and the Social Democrats, with Labour likely to join the bandwagon.
Perhaps incongruously, this writer is reliably informed that Deputy Collins is pushing hard inside his own party for Independent Ireland to join that merry band and add its four TDs to the Connolly campaign, at least in terms of providing a nomination. “Michael is very eager to back her”, said one source. “He is convinced we can win the by-election if she wins”.
This latter point refers to the by-election that would arise in Galway West were Connolly to vacate her seat to move to permanent residence in the Phoenix Park. Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas polled just under 10% of the vote in that constituency at the last general election, and missed out on the last seat by 900 or so votes to fellow independent Noel Grealish.
Of course, there are five seats at stake in a general election, and only one in a by-election. Independent Ireland are well-placed to take a seat at the next general election, but it would be a major shock if Thomas could convert a sixth-place finish to first place inside a year or so.
The more pressing question, perhaps, for Independent Ireland is whether it understands its own voters. Discussing the subject yesterday, sources both inside and outside the party were mystified, noting that this latest initiative comes less than a year after the party was plunged into a mini-crisis by the decision of Ciaran Mullooly, its sole MEP, to take his seat in the European Parliament in the group of liberals, alongside Fianna Fáil. “Now”, one perplexed Oireachtas staffer noted, “he wants them to link arms with Paul Murphy and Holly Cairns to back the most left-wing candidate in the presidential race”. “I haven’t a clue what he’s thinking, it’s like he’s playing chess with a blindfold” said another.
Indeed, Deputy Collins went on Connolly’s local Galway Bay FM radio today to confirm that he was considering Independent Ireland support for the left-winger’s candidacy, and also, intriguingly, to take pot shots at other candidates: “Some of these people couldn’t win a council election, and now they want to be President”, he said, in what very much sounded like a shot at would-be candidate Nick Delehanty, who declared his bid for a nomination some months ago.
But of course, not all candidates are created equally: Connolly certainly has a better electoral record than a candidate like Delehanty, but there are other rumoured names in the fray including former candidate Peter Casey and rumoured potential candidate Declan Ganley. All three men would seem to be a much closer ideological fit for the Independent Ireland electorate than Deputy Connolly.
Indeed, it is inconceivable that this would work the other way around: Were it the situation that Deputy Collins was considering a Presidential run, we can be absolutely certain that he would stand less than zero chance of obtaining a nomination from Deputy Connolly, or her backers, since people on the ideological left prioritise their views over, well, whatever it is that Deputy Collins is prioritising in this instance.
In any case, I am reliably informed that Deputy Collins, in this instance, is causing a degree of confusion amongst his own parliamentary colleagues. I would not be surprised if he was also causing a degree of confusion amongst his own voters. People who want a socialist President had many options at the last general election. Few of them, I suspect, went with Independent Ireland.
Who exactly he is trying to win over with this latest stunt is an open question.