Gript is unusual amongst Irish media outlets in that, I suspect, more of our readers than would be average in Ireland would be relatively unbothered by the defeat of Joe Biden in next year’s US Presidential election. In almost every other outlet, that prospect might result in sighs of barely-concealed horror: It still brings a chuckle to my mind to recall the Irish Times website on the day, in 2016, when Mrs. Clinton was defeated. They did not, it is fair to say, take it well:
The prospect of a repeat of that next year is not unthinkable: Joe Biden is, at present, in a fairly similar position to the one Trump found himself in at the same point in his presidency. A President polling in the low 40’s in approval ratings at this point in his time in office is more usually expected to lose than he is to win. This of course presents Trump fans with a dilemma, though one they don’t much think about I expect: If Biden’s polling is identical to Trump’s at this point in their respective times in office, should he be expected to win, or to lose? Which did Trump do, again?
Sorry, I couldn’t resist.
In any case, if Biden does lose, it is almost certain to be to one of two men: Donald Trump, or Ron DeSantis. It is for Republican Primary voters, and nobody else, to choose who it will be who will face off against uncle Joe in November 2024, and the choice they have to make is interesting.
To understand the choice, I think we must first attempt to understand what is animating Republican primary voters. It is not, I think, policy.
Traditionally, politicians run on what you might call a systemic platform: They promise to make changes to certain policies within the political system in order to deliver results for this constituency or that constituency: Biden, for example, has used his political power to cancel student loans, delivering a result (pending a Supreme Court ruling on its constitutionality) for a constituency that usually votes for Democrats. Barack Obama used his political power to alter the US healthcare system. George Bush used it to cut taxes and reform education, and so on.
If Republican voters were simply choosing on policy, then the choice would be relatively clear: One of their two candidates is a successful two-term Governor of Florida who kept his state open during covid, has consistently opposed things like vaccine mandates, and has ruthlessly exercised his power to check corporations and companies that have been enforcing what we might call “wokeness” on their employees. “Florida”, says Ron DeSantis, “is where woke goes to die”.
Donald Trump, by contrast, is the man who made Anthony Fauci the most powerful medic in America, and whose term in office lacked any notable policy successes outside the appointment of two Supreme Court judges.
But what if voters are not choosing on policy? What if they do not want systemic change? What if, instead, Republican primary voters – especially those who call themselves “the MAGA movement” – actually want revolution against the system itself?
In that context, there’s not much even a DeSantis can do. Watching Trump’s rallies recently, as this job requires me to do, it’s notable how little policy he talks, and where his biggest applause lines are. “I will be your retribution” was a line he rolled out a few weeks ago, to raucus cheering. He is marketing himself openly these days not so much as an agent of change, but as an agent of punishment. It’s “own the libs” distilled down to its purest form. I will make them cry.
The polls, however, have clearly been closer between the two men than Trump might like, and as such he has launched a series of blistering attacks on his new opponent, and erstwhile friend. DeSantis, he says is disloyal. He has hinted darkly, and without any foundation, that DeSantis might be gay (the Governor is happily married with children) or that he may have sexual abuse scandals in his past (Trump himself is a serial adulterer against whom multiple claims of rape have been made).
DeSantis, to his credit, has mostly remained quiet, and has yet to formally enter the race.
Whatever the differences between the two men, it is relatively obvious which of them is better placed to defeat Biden. Trump has contested two national elections, and never cracked 47% of the national vote in a country where there are only two national parties. He is also a much-tarnished figure (whether you believe he is to blame for this or not) compared to his first election. And his rhetoric has changed – gone is the talk of trade and china and building a wall. In is talk of traitors and treason.
For me, the upcoming primary is not really about either man – it is about the rationality of the Republican electorate. If the Republicans want to beat Joe Biden, their choice is obvious and natural.
The problem is: I’m not sure they do. Somewhere along the line, this Trump thing stopped being about trade and China and stopping wars and building walls, and started becoming about the idea of Trump himself as heaven-sent saviour. As the war between him and DeSantis heats up, that, I fear, will become more and more apparent.