Housing in Ireland is a fast-moving crisis receiving a slow-motion response. Sure, the political talk is full of passionate urgency. The rhetoric is high minded, and the plans are never ending as are the rows about targets set and targets missed. Some of this is important and necessary.
Much of it is one-upmanship masquerading as the search for accountability.
What we rarely hear when it comes to the housing debate is any reference to the impact that soaring levels of immigration and inward migration is having on demand and supply. If you go looking you will find references to it buried in ESRI reports or memos that briefly see the light of day before being consigned just as rapidly down the memory hole.
“We don’t talk about *that* in polite society thank you very much.
Better by far to trot out the old reliables and stick to safe ground (“We are working with our EU partners,” “international obligations,” “sorry your town can’t have that hotel because we need it for compassion or something.”
The longer this goes on the more I feel that the Dáil and our political class is effectively imitating King Canute. In this case the thrones of office are set by the shore, commanding in vain that the incoming tide of people seeking accommodation cease from rising while refusing to turn the tap off.
We have ministers and an opposition of the left and hard left who simply cannot understand how shouting slogans at a crisis does nothing to solve it.
As long as this policy of ignoring the role that immigration and inward migration is playing in prolonging the crisis goes on, the worse things will get.
More than that, such an approach is clearly an exercise in political vanity that is going to condemn this and entire generations to actual and not just political homelessness.
As it is, we have already arrived at the point where ‘affordable housing’ is now an oxymoron.
It is also the case that while there is justifiable fury at Government’s failure to meet its own housing targets, the fact remains that even if Government exceeded its own ambition of 40,000 new homes in 2024, the level of demand would still significantly outweigh supply.
My clear view is that if Government cannot supply housing at the numbers required, and clearly it cannot, then one of the few options open to it is to take robust steps to limit demand.
We do not have a duty to house the world or anyone who simply gets it into his head to arrive at our borders demanding accommodation.
Unless we change course, this will mean that rent pressures, scare supply, exorbitant costs of so-called ‘affordable housing’ and distorted levels of market competition will continue to characterise our highly dysfunctional housing market.
Government and opposition parties can go on trying to ignore this elephant in the room, but eventually they will have to wake up to reality and accept the fact that the basic laws of demand and supply will not simply disappear because they are politically too terrified to speak of them. It bears reminding people that this is a conscious political choice.
The quicker this awakening happens the better because there is zero indication at present that the flood of housing demand from those seeking international protection is about to subside anytime soon. Until this changes we are really no more than ducks, paddling furiously beneath the water but not moving an inch toward a long term solution.
Carol Nolan is an Independent TD for Offaly