It is indicative of the almost complete control that Micheal Martin has over his own parliamentary party that there was not even a peep of dissent about his decision to agree automatically to the ” Crowning” of yet another Fine Gael Taoiseach without an electoral mandate – this time in the shape of Simon Harris.
A rumour went viral around Leinster House media and political circles that there were a significant number of Fianna Fail TDs threatening to revolt against the ascension of young Simon to the highest office. In the event it turned out to be an elaborate prank tweet by a former Progressive Democrat Councillor – an April Fool’s joke no less.
As it actually turned out only one, lone FF Deputy, James O’Connor from Cork expressed the opinion that it might have been better for his party that a general election take place as one is scheduled to happen anyhow before next Febuary at the latest. The change of leaderdhip in Fine Gael gives it the short-term possibility of solving its ” identity crisis ” while leaving the FF crisis, of similar proportions, while leaving the FF crisis, of similar proportions, a significant contributor to its poor showing in the opinion polls.
The electorate, more importantly, its own supporters are, in cognitive terms, hugely confused as to what FF stands for and in particular the difference between it and its previous great rival Fine Gael. This lack of definition to the FF brand places its survival in even greater jeopardy than its oldest rival.
On one reading of things the young TD from Cork may have got it right. Simon Harris, all other things being equal, will have some form of political honeymoon as he energetically “re-sets” Fine Gael away from its ultra-liberal approach under Leo Varadkar – Pride Parades, LBGT + Envoys, and scant regard for the party’s deeply conservative origins.
There is no doubt that the three main parties of the state ( FF, FG & SF) were caught out by the electorate in relation to the double-referendum defeat on the status of women in the home and the rights of carers. This was an unnecessary initiative spawned from the do-goodery motives of the liberal (state sponsored) non-governmental organisations. However the referendum defeats are of magnified importance in that it is clearly seen as a defeat for the forces of political correctness, mainstream media and a political class harnessed to “woke” values.
In the familiar French phrase “plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.” In other words the more things change the more they remain the same. Over a year ago Micheal Martin’s grip over his party was less than sure. Martin faced the unenviable prospect of potentially being ousted by a combination of old stalwarts, serial rebels and a disparate collection of malcontents excluded from cabinet Office or position.
The departure of Mark McSharry (now an independent) and Barry Cowen’s decision to seek a seat in the European Parliament has robbed the Fianna Fáil dissidents of their most truculent and incisive champions. An earlier attempted coup against Martin fizzled out when Jim O’Callaghan, then viewed as a leader in waiting, opted, through caution, not to participate.
Martin lost two cabinet ministers in his first spell as Taoiseach but has managed to outflank his internal opponents by investing in that very 18th century concept of the “payroll” vote. Almost half of his parliamentary party’s TDs are in the cabinet, hold Minister of State positions and the others hold Chairperson roles in Dail Committees.
Like Varadkar Micheal Martin’s electoral record is patchy. The 2016 general election was something of a triumph, leading some to believe the party was back from the abyss it faced after its devestation in 2011. Martin opted to support FG from opposition in an arrangement called “confidence and supply.” He suffered the same fate as Alan Dukes, but crucially Martin could have formed a grand coalition with Enda Kenny which might have been better for both him and his party.
The fact that Martin vacillated for months before forming a government with Fine Gael shows the cruelty of timing in politics. Varadkar refashioned himself as a caretaker Taoiseach in the Covid interregnum and stole the credit for himself as well as outshining Martin in relation to the Brexit issue and its impact on Northern Ireland.
Though it is hard for someone like myself, from a FF background, to say it, Varadkar has proven to be a far more adept spokesman for the nationalist interest in Northern Ireland than his Fianna Fail equivalent. Under Michael Martin the FF view on our national question has become more opaque – as expressed by the pallid vision of some preference for a ” shared Ireland.” The unionists have found it difficult to participate in “shared” power structures in the North. The idea that they will succumb to some vague “shared Ireland” notion on a broader island basis seems very unrealistic.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that on this, the northern issue, and in many other policy areas Fianna Fail has fallen prey to the tendency to replace solid policy with “virtue signalling” and a belief that managerial-style politics will keep the show on the road.
The rise of political populists outside Ireland and the renewed surge of independent TDs in Leinster House points to an electorate that is hungry for a radical shake-up in the political arrangements. “Woke” politics has passed its peak and those that insist on clinging to it may well be swept away.
Public impatience on immigration and crime are obvious given the repeated torching of proposed refugee centres and more so the ridiculous claim by the Minister for Justice that the streets of Dublin were safe in the wake of the O’Connell Street burning riot. It is noteworthy that Harris, who substituted for McEntee in Justice, has vigorously renewed Fine Gael’s emphasis on law and order. Sinn Fein has already begun tweaking back on its liberal view of immigration, sensing quite properly, a street level resistance to “open borders” policies.
While Fine Gael “re-set” to the right, and Sinn Fein re-calibrate its leftist standpoint, Fianna Fail appears to be pressing on with its support for the ” hate speech” legislation and doubling down on its virtuosity in relation to support for the EU Migration Pact. This, given the referendum rebuff, is courting unpopularity in an election year.
Fianna Fáil’s poll ratings, since it joined government with FG, has hovered consistently around the 17% level. While Micheal Martin polls well in the popularity stakes the support for him on a personal basis is simply not translating to support for the party itself. This would suggest that Martin’s personal figures are not that robust. As ever in politics sympathy or sentiment, no matter what quarter it comes from, should not be confused with support.
Willie O’Dea, a former Minister, and one of the saner members of the party, recently urged his colleagues to stop ” playing ” to the woke gallery and focus on real issues like health, housing and crime. It was a timely warning to his leadership from one of its hard-bitten constituency operatives. It is hard to state definitively if any of FF’s younger members will be re-elected. Willie O’Dea will definitely be in the next Dail and in my experience is always one of the first to notice the writing on the wall.
Conor Lenihan is a former Minister and has written two biographies of former Taoisigh Albert Reynolds and Charles J. Haughey. He is active as a business investment professional.