Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are committing to significantly expanding Ireland’s defence capabilities should they form the next government.
In 2022, the Report of the Commission on the Defence Forces laid out three levels of ambition in the area of military capabilities.
The publication of the Report just weeks before Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine was followed by a government decision to move to Level of Ambition 2 (LOA2).
The process to achieve this ‘enhanced capability’ level by 2028 will involve the annual defence budget rising to €1.9 billion, allowing for the recruitment of an additional 6,000 Permanent and Reserve Defence Forces troops, as well as the purchase of new equipment such as primary radar.
Both of the major government parties have now indicated in their manifestos that they want Ireland to go much further in reaching Level of Ambition 3, which would likely involve the acquisition of modern fighter jets and other state-of-the-art military technology.
Fianna Fáil’s manifesto states that if in government they will “move as quickly as practicable to Level of Ambition 3.”
Fine Gael also say they have a “vision of progressing to Level of Ambition 3 (LOA3), which entails developing full-spectrum defence capabilities comparable to similar-sized countries in Europe.”
As described in the Commission’s Report, this would likely involve expanding the Naval Service to 12 ships, acquiring fighter jets capable of securing Irish airspace and expanding the capabilities of the Army Ranger Wing by ensuring it has its own combat helicopters capable of operating in hostile environments.
The Report further notes that achieving Level of Ambition 3 would mean that the Irish Army had its own lift capabilities along with artillery and cavalry units which were “fully interoperable to NATO standards.”
Significant upgrades in capabilities and equipment would also be required across the Naval Service and the Air Corps.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s stances on the future of Ireland’s military contrasts significantly with the proposals being put forward by other parties.
Although in its manifesto Sinn Féin commits to achieving Level of Ambition 2, they want a slower process of change which would see LOA 2 capital spending targets met by 2032.
They also do not commit to going beyond Level of Ambition 2, and nor do the other smaller parties.
The coalition had already signalled that a decision will be made by the next government as to whether or not Ireland should move to LOA 3.
In November 2023, the Tánaiste and Minister for Defence Micheál Martin published the Detailed Implementation Plan for the Report of the Commission on the Defence Forces, which indicated that a decision on achieving Level of Ambition 3 would be made in 2028.
It is currently unclear what the full costs of this would be, but the Report of the Commission on the Defence Forces suggested that the annual spending needed for LOA 3 could be up to three times what the defence budget had been in recent years.
The Tánaiste recently acknowledged the projected costs of reaching LOA 3 could not be estimated at this time, while adding that a capacity and capability assessment scheduled for 2027 should include analysis on this issue.
Although a record defence allocation of €1.35 billion was included within Budget 2025, Ireland remains well short of the spending commitments needed to reach Level of Ambition 2. According to Eurostat, Irish defence spending as a proportion of GDP is the lowest in the EU.
While the costs of achieving greater security remain unclear, the recent severing of two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea has placed renewed attention on the issue of critical undersea infrastructure.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are pointing to this growing threat as a key rationale for increasing defence spending, with each manifesto highlighting the need for the Irish Naval Service to have the capabilities to protect both undersea cables and offshore wind energy infrastructure.