Last week, while speaking to Pat Kenny on Newstalk radio, Trinity college immunologist Professor Luke O’Neill said that cases grew “exponentially” and “went through the roof” after the UK opened up their economy in July.
“Of course [on] July 19th, the UK fully opened, and the big question was ‘What will happen next?’” O’Neill said.
“Exponential growth begins immediately – in fact, case numbers begin to go through the roof is the first thing.”
The clip in question can be seen below, at the timestamp 0:27.
'If you're vaccinated, you're less infectious overall,'
Luke O'Neill on the transmissibility of COVID-19 with @PatKennyNT pic.twitter.com/u7R6klP7Yl
— NewstalkFM (@NewstalkFM) November 4, 2021
But is this true?
According to data from John Hopkins University, cases only rose for a few days after the July 19th opening, and then plunged precipitously after that.
https://twitter.com/Ben_Scallan/status/1457733404242423818
What’s more, it seems dubious to attribute the couple of days of rising cases to the July 19th opening, when, as can be seen on the chart, cases had already been skyrocketing for weeks at that stage. The rise would seem to have little, if anything, to do with the re-opening.
Notably, interviewer Pat Kenny did not push back on this point at all during the discussion.
Gript emailed Professor O’Neill, asking what evidence led him to his conclusion that cases had gone “through the roof.” He replied that the situation was “more nuanced,” and acknowledged he “could have been a bit clearer.”
“After that still unexplained initial drop it went back to sustained growth,” he said.
“I will discuss U.K. cases again soon as there seems to be a stabilisation happening.”
However, the cases did not seem to see “sustained growth” and have been much more choppy and unpredictable in months since.
Our verdict: Though there is no evidence to suggest that Professor O’Neill was deliberately being misleading, there is no basis in fact for the claim that cases went “through the roof” after re-opening.