There shouldn’t be a person on earth who would blame the Ukrainian Government for desiring and pursuing membership of the European Union. Becoming a member of the EU would, indisputably, dramatically improve that country’s security prospects, not to mention its economy through access to the European Single Market, or its infrastructure, through the billions of euros in structural funds it would be in line to receive.
We can be relatively certain that such membership would not be considered until after the war with Russia has been concluded one way or another, though it is increasingly clear that Ukraine will – at minimum – retain most of its territory and keep its sovereignty even in the most adverse peace deal currently imaginable.
What we are talking about, then, is not Ukraine signing up for membership in the midst of war, but Ukraine joining at some stage after the war, once peace has been concluded. This is also very attractive, because it would place immense moral pressure – if not direct legal obligations – on other EU member states to come more directly to its aid were the Russians to come back at a later point for another slice of Ukraine. If you were to look at this question from a purely Ukrainian point of view, then their membership is – to use that terrible phrase – a no brainer.
The problem is, security aspect aside, EU membership is also very attractive to a whole lot of other countries for broadly the same reasons: Single market access, structural funds, and so on. Turkey, Serbia, Albania, and several other countries are also either chomping at the bit to join – or have chomped at the bit, at some stage. But in the case of Ukraine, there are a whole load of perfectly defensible, and selfish, reasons why the European Union should probably not agree.
First, there’s the security issue. One can abhor the Russian invasion of Ukraine – as this writer does – and believe the EU should aid Ukraine – as this writer does – and still be worried about effectively signing the EU up to a proposition that would put it in direct conflict with a hostile, nuclear-armed neighbour. This is not a matter of being cowed by Russia, but it is a matter of prudence. As things stand, the EU already has strong commitments in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Finland, all of which feel threatened by Russia. Adding Ukraine to that would create a nearly 2000 mile border with the Russians – who effectively control the Belarussian border with Poland in addition to their own frontiers – which might have to be defended.
Second, there’s the migration issue. EU membership comes, as we know, with the free movement of people. Granting Ukrainians EU citizenship would, at the stroke of a pen, make all Ukrainian migration into Europe permanent and irreversible. What’s more, it would likely encourage further migration from a country that has been crippled by war, and already has something of a demographic crisis.
Third, there’s the cost: EU membership would, no doubt, put Europe on the hook for rebuilding the parts of Ukraine devastated by war.
But fourth, and I think principally, there’s the basic question of where Europe ends, geographically. And the issue of the precedent set by admitting Ukraine. Technically, Ukraine is in the European Continental mass, but so are parts of Kazahkistan, miles to the east. So is Azerbaijan, and Georgia. All of those countries also have reason to feel threatened by Russia – if not now, then potentially in the future. Admitting Ukraine would set a convincing precedent to admit others.
To put it bluntly, what’s in it for us?
The EU, with Ukraine, would be admitting a country that would – through no fault of its own but in fact nevertheless – be a huge drain on money, resources, and strategic planning. Does admitting Ukraine make the EU stronger, or does it make us weaker? I’d argue, strongly, that it’s the latter.
There may come a time in the future when this changes, but for now I think you can expect positive noises of solidarity to continue, but the process of actual membership to be slow-walked. There are, presumably, enough clear-eyed pragmatists in Europe still able to realise that the EU would be taking on immense obligations, for no clear benefit in return.