Yesterday’s publication, by Eirgrid, of that body’s annual “winter outlook” report on electricity supply in Ireland for the winter months should make grim reading for Irish politicians.
Put simply, as the executive summary states, this will be the second consecutive winter when the national grid is not in a position to guarantee that demand for electricity will, or can, be met:
“The Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) figure would suggest that, on average, electricity consumers could potentially be without supply for up to 2 hours over the winter period. However, emergency protocols are in place with large energy users that would mitigate the impact on homes and businesses, where sufficient notice of an event can be provided (minimum of 1 hour). LOLE and EUE are metrics used to measure the risk or likelihood of such an event happening. This does not necessarily mean that electricity consumers will be without supply for any period during the winter. In last year’s Winter Outlook, the EUE figure suggested that consumers could be without power for 4 hours, yet consumers experienced no loss of power during the winter due to capacity issues. Based on information at the time of the data freeze, mid ‑December is expected to be the most onerous period from a capacity margin perspective”
One thing to take into account here is that these figures are based on Ireland having an average winter, like last year’s, with only a few relatively short periods of severe cold. In fact, on page 12 of the report, a key assumption underpinning the projections is that demand for electricity will remain at roughly last year’s level. The assumptions also include a projection that the generation of wind power will remain at last year’s levels.
These, to be clear, are not unreasonable assumptions for Eirgrid to make. But they do underscore the vulnerability of Ireland’s electrical grid, and the degree to which it’s vulnerability is linked to our dependence on wind for electrical output. The doomsday scenario, from a supply and demand perspective, is a long period of cold, still, wind-free weather, like the winter “deep freeze” Ireland experienced in 2010 with temperatures falling to the mid minus-teens.
Other assumptions are similarly reasonable, but vulnerable: For example, Eirgrid assumes a constant and uninterrupted supply of natural gas from the Corrib Gas field, and the Moffat gas terminal in Scotland. But Ireland imports fully 75% of its total natural gas supply via the Moffat terminal, and that supply is inherently vulnerable to global supply and demand issues. The present trouble in the Middle East, and the ongoing war in Ukraine are both causes of concern, especially given Vladimir Putin’s established willingness to use Gas supplies as a point of leverage against Europe in the wintertime.
Indeed, what the report shows above all is the extent to which Ireland’s energy supplies are inherently vulnerable and fragile. All of which puts the recent decision by An Bord Pleanála to refuse permission for the Shannon Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminal into sharper relief: That terminal would have opened Ireland up to trans-atlantic supplies of natural gas, which would have greatly alleviated potential supply risks. Alas, the Green Party is deeply opposed to that idea, on the basis that they oppose fracking and much American gas comes from that source.
What does all of this mean for Irish consumers? Higher prices, in short. Even if there are no service interruptions, demand for electricity in Ireland will run close to, or ahead of, demand this winter. That means higher prices for electricity useage, which is the main way Irish consumers will suffer this winter.
But it’s important to remember that we no longer live in a country where the supply of electricity is guaranteed. What this report makes abundantly clear is that in the doomsday scenario: Prolonged cold, wind-free weather combined with global gas shortages (which cold weather will also exacerbate) would mean a situation where mass blackouts or brownouts were very much on the table. Such a scenario is not likely, but nor is it impossible.
Perhaps the most pressing question is this: In the year since Eirgrid last flagged this issue as a potential crisis waiting to happen, what has Government done to alleviate it or mitigate the risk? That’s a question our politicians probably – and hopefully – won’t have to answer. Because if they do end up facing it, it will mean that the worst has happened. And let me tell you right now – they don’t have much of an answer to it at all.