The recent election and inauguration of Donald Trump as President of America was greeted with a mixture of disdain and resignation in European capitals. Dublin had its own twist on this with Tánaiste Simon Harris feverishly back-pedalling on a previous description of that same Donald Trump as a gowl.
Certainly, Trump is far from being the polished global statesman. To use a Trumpism, Donald Trump is hardly a ‘beautiful’ person. He is vain, unpredictable and has the annoying tendency to speak without first engaging his brain. And that’s not even to mention his well-publicised propensity for Diet Cokes and Big Mac’s!
But what Europe fails to realise is that moral indignation is not a policy. Many key players in history were flawed characters. Accepting that reality is likely to serve Europe and Ireland better than the ongoing childish portrayal of Trump as some sort of buffoon.What’s different with Trump in 2025 compared to 2016 is that he now has a decisive electoral mandate. The other significant difference this time is the way Big Tech has opted to publicly stand with him. Mind you, no one should be under any illusions about that – most of these tech billionaires are acting purely in their own self-interest but that still doesn’t change the new reality.
The fact that these people have now chosen to identify with the Trump presidency tells its own story and shows more than anything else how the mood music has changed in America. Europe would be well advised to heed this new reality rather than endlessly engaging in word games based around a deluded belief in its own moral superiority.
Apart from anything else, there is little for the EU to feel superior about these days. Its economy has been stagnant for the last few years with Germany, in particular, grappling with high energy prices. But this is only part of the story. In 2008, the EU and the US were neck and neck in terms of GDP. In 2023, GDP in the US was 50% greater than that of the EU. Even allowing for the exclusion of a Brexit UK in the 2020 figure, it shows how economic activity in the EU has stagnated. Comparisons with China are even less flattering for Europe.
There are also major problems around demographics now affecting Europe. While Europe’s population has increased, the key point here is that its fertility rate declined from 2.70 in 1950 to 1.50 in 2020 meaning that it is now well below replacement level. Put in simple terms, Europe, the once great cultural and economic powerhouse of the world is dying before our eyes.
Europe’s increase in population is explained by inward migration from outside of Europe. Many of these migrants are low-skilled and hold cultural values at variance with those of European countries. But this has been completely downplayed by Europe’s political elites who have viewed inward migration as a sticking plaster for the continent’s demographic problems. This has usually been dressed up in humanitarian terms although it is quite clear that there has always been a strong economic imperative behind it too.
However, it is now apparent that there is a growing resistance from many ordinary Europeans to what is seen as a threat to the European way of life. Indeed, there is growing opposition to it in many European countries which those same elites are now more likely to dismiss as ‘far-right misinformation’.
There are also ongoing issues around the state of democracy in the same EU. Consider for one moment that Ursula von der Leyen, President of the EU Commission and very much the public face of the EU does not have an electoral mandate in the way that Donald Trump does. This makes her more emperor than president and cuts to the heart of many of the problems relating to democracy in the EU today.
Take the European Parliament. The more energetic of Ireland’s 14 MEPs might try to convince you that they are at the heart of some vital democratic process but no one seriously believes that they would be missed in a parliament of 720 members drawn from 27 countries with widely competing interests.
These days, it appears that the instincts of the EU are more about regulation than innovation. In this, the EU is now more like the royal households of Europe before the advent of WW1 in trying to hold back the future. No one needs reminding how that worked out for those same European royal households.
While the EU tries to regulate and control everything from AI to free speech, the rest of the world is embracing the challenges they present. Not only is Trump’s America aiming for the stars – or at least perhaps a landing on Mars – it is also re-asserting the primacy of biological science. Meanwhile, old world liberals in Europe are still clinging to flat earth beliefs about men being able to become women.
With St. Patrick’s Day approaching all of this is coming into sharp for Ireland’s political class. Ireland is unique in Europe and the world in getting an annual invite to the White House. Whether they get an invitation to the White House this year remains to be seen. Much of the commentary generated around Ireland’s stand on Gaza won’t have helped especially so when it is at the whim of a man who everyone accepts can be unpredictable.
There is certainly no shortage of political players in Ireland who wouldn’t think twice about sacrificing Irish jobs for some vain slogans relating to a conflict thousands of kilometres from Ireland and over which we can never expect to exert the least influence. These are the politics of the students union and no one should underestimate the danger they pose to Ireland’s economic interests.
This is certainly not a time for grandstanding by Ireland. It is, however, time for a serious reality check not only about Trump’s America but also von der Leyen’s Europe.