Austrian National Council Member, Gudrun Kuglar has said that “demographic shift will fundamentally alter our societies” adding that European countries are “not adequately prepared” for the projected changes.
Kuglar, the Parliamentary Assembly’s Special Representative on Demographic Change and Security for the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) highlighted the “profound impact” of demographic shifts on security and stability across the OSCE region, as well as possible remedies, in a 22-page report.
The report, titled “Demographic Change in the OSCE Region: Analysis, Impact and Possible Solutions of a Mega Trend Reshaping Society,” calls for urgent policy responses to address declining birth rates, aging populations, and consequences of these trends.
As part of the presentation, Kugler hosted a side event during the annual Winter Meeting of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly on 21 February, where delegates engaged in open discussion on the challenges posed by demographic change.
Contributions were heard from Nicholas Gailey, researcher at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, and Vladimir Gjorchev, National Coordinator for Demography, Youth and Human Resources in N. Macedonia, who provided insights into the demographic trends affecting many countries.
“The demographic shift will fundamentally alter our societies, yet we are not adequately prepared,” said Kugler, adding that, “Falling birth rates and an aging population put immense pressure on our economic and social systems. For example, in Austria, by 2042, there will be only two working-age individuals for every retiree, significantly straining pension systems and the labor market.”
The report says that as demographic pressures mount, “especially when manifested around immigration and the distribution of resources (such as pensions and healthcare), there could be a rise in populist, nationalist, and anti-immigrant political movements.”
“These movements” it says, “ often gain traction in countries where younger, economically insecure populations feel threatened by demographic shifts. Increased polarisation could destabilise political systems and make it harder to implement long-term policies.”
Vladimir Gjorchev said that “Everyone talks about human resources, but there are no human resources without humans. Since 2019, two thirds of the people in the world live in the countries with fertility rate below 2,1. That means that many countries are faced with major population decline and depopulation. The OSCE PA and Vice President Kugler are taking a step in the right direction covering this mega-issue.”
Demographer Nicholas Gailey stated that, “Unfulfilled fertility desires are now common throughout the OSCE region, representing clear room for policy action in support of families. Such should be part of a broader response to demographic change that requires reflection on what is important for building a resilient and prosperous country – including the health, skills, and well-being of the population.”
Kugler’s report asks questions such as what incentives are needed to foster family-friendly societies, why migration and digitalization alone are insufficient responses to demographic decline, what challenges to security we will have to face and how to reduce unplanned childlessness. “The key question is not only why do people have so few children, but why do so few people have children,” she said,
As Gript previously reported, Dutch academic, Dr Jan van der Beek, discussed research which predicts that immigration will cost the Netherlands €600bn by 2040.
Mr. van der Beek said that the economic contribution of migrants, according to Dutch research, shows that country of origin was a major factor in predicting the cost benefit of migration on the local economy.
He said that while migrants from other EU nations and parts of East Asia do not cause a drain on the economy, migrants from regions such are Africa represent a burden on tax revenue which is more than they contribute.
Mr. van der Beek said that it is often the least integrated migrants who remain in the country the longest at the greatest cost to the tax payer.
Kuglar’s report also outlines policy recommendations aimed at mitigating these risks through economic reforms, social incentives, and strategic planning.
“This is a wake-up call,” Kugler stated. “Demographic change is a life-altering reality which demands awareness and commitment on a broad societal level, a cultural shift in attitudes towards having children, and strategic political action.”