Since the by-elections, there has been much speculation in the national conversation over the prospect of a left-wing government, with the possibility of Sinn Féin potentially propped up by the Social Democrats. Holly Cairns’s criticism of Mary Lou’s party, saying Sinn Féin are “at a crossroads” and need to “figure out where they are going”, is a bellicose posture that will likely position the Social Democrats better to extract concessions in any future Programme for Government negotiation.
One alternative that has received far less attention in recent months is the prospect of a right-wing coalition supported by either Aontú or Independent Ireland. At a time when the governing parties are seeking to bolster their right-wing credentials, and with Aontú and Independent Ireland polling strongly – their combined support running narrowly ahead of the Social Democrats in recent polls – this scenario may be becoming increasingly plausible.
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