National governments should begin preparing for “emerging threats” to the economy, food security, health, and more in the next century, as declining birthrates globally begin to pose a challenge to “the way we live.”
According to a new Lancet study, “”dramatic” declines in global fertility rates are set to “transform” the demographic makeup of most of the world’s nations in the coming decades.
“Replacement rate” in the context of a nation’s population refers to the number of children most women need to have in order to maintain the current population level. So, for example, if the Republic of Ireland was to maintain it’s population of 5 million into the future, how many children would each woman have to have? This figure is the “replacement rate.”
The typical replacement rate for most developed countries is around 2.1 children per woman, and if the fertility rate falls below this figure, then the population of that country or region is set to go into decline, which will have a wide variety of serious long-term knock-on consequences for social services, pensions, healthcare, and more.
However, according to this new study, by the year 2100, just six countries in the world will have fertility rates above this number – Somalia, Niger, Chad, Samoa, Tonga, and Tajikistan. All the remainder will be in a state of population decline – a trend which the study’s authors call “particularly worrying.”
“The global TFR [total fertility rate] has more than halved over the past 70 years, from around five children for each female in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021 – with over half of all countries and territories (110 of 204) below the population replacement level of 2.1 births per female as of 2021,” they said in a statement.
“This trend is particularly worrying for places such as South Korea and Serbia, where the rate is less than 1.1 child for each female.”
The statement adds that over the coming decades, “global fertility is predicted to decline even further, reaching a TFR of around 1.8 in 2050, and 1.6 in 2100 – well below the replacement level.”
However, they add that “for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, fertility rates remain high.”
“The [fertility rate] of the [sub-Saharan Africa] region is nearly twice the global average, at four children per female in 2021,” they authors say.
“In Chad, the [fertility rate] of seven births is the highest in the world.”
The study’s authors said that “the world is approaching a low-fertility future” judging by these findings, and that “more than 97% of countries and territories will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size over time.”
“This ‘demographically divided world’ will have enormous consequences for economies and societies,” they added.
“The implications are immense,” said co-lead author and Lead Research Scientist from IHME Dr. Natalia V. Bhattacharjee.
“These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies. Global recognition of the challenges around migration and global aid networks are going to be all the more critical when there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and as sub-Saharan Africa’s baby boom continues apace.”
Gript previously asked Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys if the government had any plans to deal with the potential demographic timebomb posed by the country’s low birthrates and the threat that may pose to pensions long term. She confirmed that they did not.
Irish Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys, who is responsible for pensions, says she's not aware of any plans the Irish government has to increase birthrates, despite the demographic timebomb threatening pensions long-term. Question by @Ben_Scallan #gript pic.twitter.com/SBV3lGPnai
— gript (@griptmedia) October 10, 2023
This publication also previously interviewed Elon Musk on the future of the world’s demographics among other matters, which can be viewed below.