The average age of first time mothers in Ireland continues to increase “year-on-year”, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has said.
According a new release from Ireland’s national statistics body, “the age at which women are deciding to have their first child is rising year on year,” and “this would be expected to impact on future fertility rates if the trend were to continue.”
The CSO notes that there has been “an increasing trend towards later births”, with the average age of first-time mothers rising from 26 years in 1985, to 31.7 years in 2021.
According to Eurostat, 29.7 years was the average age of women at the birth of their first child in the EU in 2022, ranging from 26.6 in Bulgaria to 31.7 in Italy.
In demography, the “total fertility rate” is the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime based on current birth rates. The “replacement rate” is the fertility rate needed to keep a country’s population stable, without growing or shrinking. For most countries, this rate is about 2.1 children per woman, accounting for child mortality and other factors. This means that a rate of 2.1 is generally needed to stop the population from naturally shrinking.
The CSO report says that the Irish total fertility rate is “decreasing steadily”, and had dropped to 1.55 in 2022, already below replacement rate. While the authors note that this is “slightly above the European average” of 1.46, it is still expected to continue dropping to as low as 1.3 by 2037.
Over the past 50 years in Ireland, the number of births peaked in 2009, reaching 75,550.
“Births have declined almost consistently since 2009, with fewer than 60,580 births recorded in 2021,” the report read.
“The provisional number of births for 2022 and 2023 stand at 54,477 and 54,418 respectively, with the final figure for 2022 to be published in October 2024.”
It’s also the case that the number of women in the younger age groups is falling.
“The number of women aged 20 – 29 has been in decline in recent years, falling from 383,000 in 2009 to nearly 304,000 in 2022 (-20.6%), while the number of women aged 30 – 39 has remained almost static, with small fluctuations between 368,000 and 385,000 since 2012,” the report reads.
“…The combination of declining fertility rates allied with a decrease in the number of women of child bearing age has resulted in the fertility rate falling from 2.10 in 2010 to 1.73 in 2021 or a decline of 17.6%.”
In March of this year, a Lancet study found that “dramatic” declines in global fertility rates are set to “transform” the demographic makeup of most of the world’s nations in the coming decades, and that only six nations on earth will have fertility rates above replacement by the year 2100.
The report said that national governments should begin preparing for “emerging threats” to the economy, food security, health, and more in the next century, as declining birthrates globally begin to pose a challenge to “the way we live.”
The authors of a Lancet study have urged national governments to plan for “emerging threats” to the economy, food security, health and more as declining birthrates and demographics are set to have “immense implications” and “transform the way we live.”https://t.co/1e24LRYQ2u
— gript (@griptmedia) March 21, 2024
Despite these facts, in October last year, Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys said she was “not aware” of any plans that the Irish government had to increase birthrates to deal with these long-term challenges.
Irish Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys, who is responsible for pensions, says she's not aware of any plans the Irish government has to increase birthrates, despite the demographic timebomb threatening pensions long-term. Question by @Ben_Scallan #gript pic.twitter.com/SBV3lGPnai
— gript (@griptmedia) October 10, 2023
More recently, Finance Minister Jack Chambers said that he would be “receiving further briefings from officials” at his Department on the matter.
Ireland's newly-appointed Finance Minister, Jack Chambers, has mentioned ageing "demographics" as a long-term "risk" to the Irish economy.@Ben_Scallan asks if his government has any plans to incentivise people to have more children to deal with the problem. pic.twitter.com/T41gNOys9D
— gript (@griptmedia) June 27, 2024