There has been little analysis of the overall picture that may emerge regarding the composition of the European Parliament following next week’s elections.
Most of the polls tracking the likely outcomes in terms of group size – that are referenced for example by Wikipedia – show remarkably little change since 2019. There are currently 705 seats but this is being increased to 720.
The latest EU wide poll was published on Thursday this week by the German site election.de. Of the main groups; the European People’s Party – of which Fine Gael is the Irish representative – is projected to win 179 seats compared to 175 at present. The next largest grouping, the Social Democrats, of which Labour is a member and which our own Social Democrats aspire to join, is forecast to increase from 139 to 141. It is unlikely that either of the pink tyros shall be from these shores.
The Renew group which includes Fianna Fáil currently has 102 seats and the latest poll shows that this will fall to 84. The Greens, of whom there are currently 2 Irish MEPS, is similarly on course to lose 15 of its 72 members, at least one of whom is certain to be one of our own.
There are no Irish MEPs who are members of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), and no group or candidate contesting the elections here on June 7 is affiliated to the ECR or yet indicated formally that they might do so if they elect any of their candidates. It currently has 69 members and the polls have consistently predicted that this will increase; to 81 according to election.de.
Both the Irish Freedom Party and Ireland First have said that they will apply to join one or other of the ECR or Identity and Democracy groups. ID currently has 49 seats and is projected to win 32 additional seats and to have 81 in the new parliament. This despite the recent expulsion of its German affiliate Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) which the German poll predicts will win 16 seats, significantly up from its current 9 MEPs.
AfD would then become the largest party of the non-affiliated group (NI) which is largely comprised of parties and individuals on the right and which polls believe will grow from 61 to 67. Its other main constituent party is the ruling Hungarian Fidesz which has 12 seats at the moment and may well increase that number.
Sinn Féin are members of the Left GUE/NGL group which also includes independent MEPs Ming Flanagan, Mick Wallace and Clare Daly. The Left currently has 37 members and the May 30 poll predicts that this will increase by 6 to 43.
However, if that latest election.de poll on the Left is any indication based on its “Prognose” for the destination of the 14 Irish seats, then it may be that they are also quite a way off from what the outcome might actually be once the counts are completed in all the other states.
The poll forecasts that Fine Gael will win four seats, as will Fianna Fáil. It also shows that the Green Party will retain one of its two seats, but does not specify in which constituency, and that the Left will take 5 seats; four for Sinn Féin and Flanagan being the sole surviving independent.
Now, you would not have to be spending your every waking moment poring over polls conducted here, nor to be closely following the campaigns, to form the opinion that the election.de prognosis for the destination of the 14 seats to be filled here is likely to be somewhat in error.
Flanagan is the only Irish MEP actually named in the poll and it is almost certain if one goes by the current clutterbuck that he will be returned. He is possibly the only left independent in the state who will benefit from the evident swing in sentiment to candidates who will have no party beside their name on the ballot paper.
The Greens, in my humble opinion, are highly unlikely to retain either of their seats. Grace O’Sullivan is toast in the South constituency, and they have not a breeze in the Midlands/North West no more than their former candidate Saoirse McHugh who is now running as an independent. Ciarán Cuffe might have an outside chance if staying in the race ahead of the other lesser spotted lefts among Labour, Sinn Féin, Social Democrats and People Before Profit if the Greens have retained their transfer friendliness. Which I doubt.
The other two Left independents Clare Daly and Mick Wallace are up against it but they like Flanagan are regarded perhaps more as maverick outsiders and therefore possible beneficiaries of transfers from other independents and smaller groupings who would certainly not be considered to be of the left.
As for the Shinners: they will not take four seats unless the polls and the trend of the polls for the past months are completely failing to chart actual voter sentiment, or unless that trend is reversed over the next few days. Indeed, their two-candidate strategy potentially jeopardises their chances of winning a seat in any of the three constituencies.
By all accounts, both Senator Gavan in the South and Daithí Doolan – who must surely have wondered whether he might have been better off concentrating on retaining his Dublin City Council seat in Ballyfermot-Drimnagh although he did get his way in only having one running mate who has barely a chance according to local goss – are performing abysmally.
Both Gavan and Doolan will be down among the also rans which will mean that Kathleen Funchion in the South and Lynn Boylan in Dublin will require a very high transfer rate if they are to translate what ought to be enough combined votes according to even the worst polls into a seat.
Chris McManus the sole current Sinn Féin MEP ought to be safe in Midlands/West despite the hope of some of the “core group” that his running mate and former Stormont governor Michelle Gildernew might have won one for the Gipper. Gildernew is the only chance they have of taking four presuming Boylan, L, and Funchion get over the line, but it is a slim one that I venture to call a negative.
As for Fianna Fáil winning four, yes that is a possibility. Three would appear to be a racing certainty but they will need a good day and some luck to take a second and that most likely to be in the South. Fine Gael will win one in Dublin where like FF it wisely only has one candidate, Seán Kelly is a cert in the South and Nina Carberry might get up by a nose in Midlands/West alongside or even in front of Maria Walsh. (You will see what I did there. No slur intended to Nina’s olfactory attributes.)
Forget any of the other parties on the left taking a seat. I include Labour, SDs, People Before Profit and anyone else running under a pale pink or scarlet red banner. So by my calculations there will be 3 FF, 3 FG, probably 3 SF, and one current Independent. Which would constitute the main part of my prediction.
Which still leaves four of the 14. Indeed it does. My predictions for those are that Independent Ireland will win two seats; Niall Boylan in Dublin and Ciarán Mulooly in Midlands West. Another seat will go to independent candidate Michael McNamara in the South constituency.
And then there was one. That I think will go to one of the following: Eddie Punch of Independent Ireland in the South, Maria Walsh or Nina Carberry for a second FG seat in Midlands/West, with an outside shot of Peadar Toíbín, another independent, or Gildernew. There is also the outside chance that if Dublin turns out a massive Independent/Others vote of the order of 50% which is not impossible that another independent – Clare Daly or Malachy Steenson might take the last seat ahead of Lynn Boylan.
I will conclude this stab in the dark by forecasting – on the basis of a similar comparison between the election.de and other EU wide polls to some of the national opinion polls on party support – that the combined right nationalist bloc of ECR, ID and a significant number of members of the non-affiliated NI group will increase to somewhere in the region of 200 seats.