One of the big problems with writing about the Covid Pandemic, 20 months into it, is that by this stage, almost everything that there is to say has been said. And little of it has made any difference.
But there is one point that must be made over, and over, again: And that point is that we now have an organisation – NPHET – wielding immense political power in Ireland which has no agreed goals for its success or failure, and – in practical, if not constitutional terms – no accountability for the decisions that it makes and enacts.
Consider, for example, that Omicron comes at a fortuitous time, in one way at least, for the NPHET. We have just had two weeks of restrictions which were, remember, nothing to do with Omicron. The most recent restrictions, up to, and including, facemasks in schools, were enacted to deal with a surge in the Delta variant which, stubbornly, has refused to materialise.
https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1465727521467650049
In the context of a Delta wave (400,000 predicted cases, remember) that does not appear to be materialising, despite NPHET’s models, the Omicron variant is good news indeed, if you are one of those who argued for those restrictions. Because now the goalposts have shifted: What was necessary because of the Delta wave must now be maintained, if not extended, because of the danger of Omicron.
At this stage, by now, it should be obvious to most people who are looking with even a slightly critical eye that Tony Holohan and NPHET behave more like politicians than the politicians themselves. If it is not obvious to you, then let me explain the thesis: Everything they do is opinion polled in advance, through a standing contract with Amárach Research. Ideas are always floated first in the media, helpfully creating a feedback loop of “pressure” to enact new restrictions like, this week, the masking of children. Where once one might have needed scientific and medical evidence to enact a policy like this one, now no such medical evidence is needed.
That last claim might be controversial, so, once again, let me illustrate it:
Ask yourself: How many studies or reports were publicly cited by NPHET or politicians this week before they announced the policy in relation to masks in schools? Do you remember anything like that? Do you remember any statement like “when South Korea introduced masks in schools, cases fell by 30%”?
You do not remember any statement like that, is the answer, because no such statement was made. No evidence was cited. No objective for the policy was set out.
There are, with NPHET, no failure standards. There is no measurable way to say that their policy has failed. How are we to measure the success of the facemasks in schools policy? If, in three weeks, cases in schools are still high, will they, for example, say “clearly, this measure made no difference, so we will abandon it”?
No, they will not. Because NPHET can never admit failure. Which makes them different from scientists.
Scientists can – and do – admit failure all the time, because admitting failure is a core part of science. How do you prove that something cannot be done, other than by trying it, and showing it to be impossible?
Politicians and authority figures, on the other hand, can never admit failure, because to admit failure is to risk undermining confidence in their authority.
The most a politician will ever do is speak in the passive voice: “mistakes were made” – which, conveniently, allows the listener space to believe that the mistakes were not the politician’s own.
This is also the NPHET way of doing business. It is entirely political, and entirely unscientific.
We know, though, that NPHET makes mistakes, and makes whopping ones, at that. Consider, if you disbelieve me, the U-turn on antigen testing. Antigen testing has gone from useless snake oil to being so vital that you cannot travel without an antigen test in a matter of months. Both policies cannot have been correct. One of them was, by definition, utterly wrong. Dr. Holohan and his team have never even been asked, let alone expected to answer, which of the two policies it was that was a catastrophic error.
All of this comes back to one point: A complete and total abdication of leadership by the man who leads the Government. He has been comprehensively and totally maneuvered into irrelevance by Dr. Holohan, and the politicians in NPHET. There is one simple thing he could demand of them that might soften their cough:
All policies should have a failure standard: A pre-agreed set of expectations for what a policy is intended to achieve, against which its success or failure can be judged. From day one, in Ireland, NPHET has never had to live up to any such standard. It announces measures with little scientific justification, and no measurable deliverables. The same question can be asked of many other NPHET endorsed policies, by the way: How does one measure the success or failure of vaccine certificates? Or the nine euro meal? Or closing nightclubs at midnight? When we make all these sacrifices of our freedom, what are we expected to get in return?
It should not be a hard question. Dr. Holohan and his team would hardly make such recommendations without having some idea of what is to be accomplished.
Or… would they?
We do not know, because nobody ever asks or demands that they be accountable. That, dear reader, is the fault of many people, including the media. But nobody should take more blame than the man in the Taoiseach’s office, whose literal job it is to hold the machinery of state to account on behalf of the public who elected him.
An organisation which is structured in such a way that it can never be seen to have failed is immensely dangerous. It amounts to making that organisation into a living God. We have such an organisation in Ireland, wielding unprecedented power.
We will all pay for it, if we do not come to our collective senses.