Ireland would not survive another lockdown. Not socially. Not economically. Perhaps not even societally.
This is what makes the recent Hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship so terrifying.
Unlike other journalists writing for more mainstream publications, I am not going to bury the key fact from you for the sake of clicks: it is almost impossible for the Hantavirus to become another COVID-19.
As far as scientists can tell, this outbreak is caused by the Andes strain of the disease. While this is the only form of hantavirus that can spread between humans that we know of, it is not very contagious. Its high estimated mortality rate of between 1 and 15 per cent also — paradoxically — reduces the risk of pandemic, as the virus is far more likely to burn itself out before it can spread to a critical mass of hosts.
By contrast, the World Health Organisation believes the lethality of COVID in Ireland hovered around half a percentage point.
But “impossible” and “almost impossible” are very different beasts. Even with how unlikely Hantavirus is to become a widespread problem, the fact that there is a chance — a very minute chance — it could metastasise is like ice down the back of my neck.
Because if that pandemic did come to pass, we would almost certainly have no way of properly handling it.
For many, COVID was what severed their trust in Ireland’s governing class, and for good reason. The entire epidemic was defined by government gaffes and mixed messaging. Politicians initially insisted the disease could be controlled without a lockdown or border restrictions, before changing tone to the famous “two weeks to flatten the curve” after the virus made landfall.
At that point, a complete closure of society seemed like the best way to help Ireland’s lethargic public health service survive the initial onslaught of coronavirus cases. But then those two weeks came and went, and despite growing evidence that COVID’s mortality rate was nowhere near as high as originally feared, the country remained closed for business.
And you know the rest.
Hantavirus is not COVID-19. That is a good thing in the sense that it is far less likely to become a worldwide disaster. It is also far more lethal, meaning on the off chance it does start spreading, extreme measures will likely be required to limit its destructive potential. A highly contagious mutation of the disease that maintained its current mortality rate would require mandatory public health measures. These would likely include masking, social distancing and yes — for an initial period — lockdown.
But such measures will be almost impossible to enact squarely due to the government’s failures during COVID.
Our economy almost certainly would not be able to absorb another pandemic. The inflation caused by mass government handouts to both individuals and businesses was bad enough, but the subsequent war in Ukraine has largely ensured that the entire Eurozone lacks the fiscal flexibility to enact emergency measures without irreparably harming public finances.
The social harm would almost be immense. The two years of COVID lockdown — billed as being necessary to protect the elderly — came at the cost of Ireland’s youngest. Many children have not yet caught up developmentally from the years they lost to COVID, with studies finding that the reading, mathematics, and even social communication skills of our youth remain weakened as a result of government COVID policy. Another two years of lockdown would no doubt deepen such scars.
But all that is assuming such a lockdown would be physically possible. And I do not think it would be.
That is because I do not think that much of the public would comply.
After being forced to stay indoors on and off for two years, Irish public sentiment had clearly turned against lockdown measures. Part of this was just unavoidable pandemic fatigue, the kind any population would have under such policies regardless of whether they were enacted to deal with the stomach flu or the black death.
But a lot of it was down to how badly the government mishandled the entire affair. While criticised in this very publication, even the state’s own review of the pandemic found evidence of serious and maintained wrongdoing. It heard from researchers that closing schools — long criticised by lockdown critics — was almost certainly unnecessary, and that many of the measures designed to benefit public health resulted instead in substantial harm.
This has left a large minority of our population with the view that — regardless of whether or not they complied with lockdown measures during COVID — they will never obey such health edicts ever again.
That is all well and good if the state tries to enforce a shutdown to deal with a future meddlesome yet mild respiratory illness. But what if next time, it really is as deadly as some of the experts warned? What if it is, like the Hantavirus, fatal in as many as 15 per cent of cases?
My best guess is that compliance would remain low initially. The government could warn the public all they like about the threat posed by such an illness, but after years of crying wolf, their alarms would carry next to no credibility. By contrast, they would likely spark mass gatherings in the form of protests, resulting in super-spreader events.
And by the time the public realised the state was fully accurate in its warnings this time around, it would be far, far too late.
This is why good public communication on the issue of health is so important. Had the government communicated openly and honestly with Irish citizens throughout the pandemic, and treated them with an ounce of respect regarding personal freedoms, we would all have far more trust in the current system. As a result, if it did turn around and tell us the second Spanish flu was upon us, we would have good reason to take them at their word.
But six years after COVID ravaged the world, that trust just is not there. And the state is solely to blame for that.