Ireland is on track to miss its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by a wide margin, which a previous report said could see the country hit with fines ranging between €8 to €26 billion.
The latest projections come from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) which said that even with the full implementation of additional climate policies currently being discussed, the country could achieve a reduction of just 25 percent by 2030, compared to the national target of 51 percent.
However, if the currently existing measures are all that is taken into account, the EPA projects that Ireland will only reduce emissions by 13 percent by 2030.
Ireland is bound by two targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, one coming from domestic legislation and the other from the European Union.
The national Climate Act mandates that a reduction of 51 percent by 2030, compared to 2018 levels, be reached, and that the country achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
Meanwhile, the EU’s ‘Effort Sharing Regulation’ rules that Ireland must achieve a 42 percent emissions reduction in various sectors by 2030.
According to the EPA, Ireland is set to fall far short of both targets.
The EPA’s analysis argues that Ireland’s planned climate policies and measures could deliver reductions of up to 25 percent of emissions by 2030.
“Assessment of the latest information provided by Governmental bodies and sector representatives indicates that the gap to target is widening in some sectors of the economy, while narrowing in others,” the agency said.
With less than four years left to the 2030 deadline, the agency said that there “must be a strong focus on implementation of policies and measures to meet climate targets which will deliver wide-ranging benefits from environmental protection, supporting public health and wellbeing and reducing Ireland’s dependence on fossil fuels”.
Commenting on the latest projections, Director General of the EPA Dr Eimear Cotter said that “while greenhouse gas emissions are declining, European and national emission reduction targets are projected to be missed”.
“There must be a renewed focus on delivering the actions to meet Ireland’s climate targets which will be a significant challenge given the short timeframe to 2030,” she said.
A previous report from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council argued that the State may have to pay out €8 to €26 billion in fines if it fails to meet its binding climate targets.
However, it added that if the Government implemented additional measures it has planned, the potential costs could be reduced to between €3 and €12 billion.