Here’s a question: What happens if Israel qualifies for Euro 2028, the major football tournament this country is due to co-host in two year’s time?
In some ways it says something positive about the state of modern Ireland that the subject which reliably generates most heat and intensity in public debate is this country’s relationship with Israel, a state over which we have zero influence and which places absolutely zero weight on this country’s views when making its decisions on security policy, or indeed anything else.
Why is it positive? Well, for the simple reason that if we have so much spare emotional energy to invest into this subject, we can probably be reasonably confident that the country’s domestic problems are trifling by international standards.
The latest kerfuffle is, of course, the terrifying news that eleven Irishmen will be pitted against eleven Israelis in home and away games of soccer this autumn, in the second tier of a European Men’s Football competition that, in truth, nobody cares about. As a symbol of where both Irish and Israeli soccer stands, being paired up in a group with Austria and Kosovo in a glorified friendly tournament is hardly the World Cup Finals (though of course Ireland does still stand a very long-shot chance of making those, this summer, the football gods willing.)
Nevertheless, these two games in the autumn are going to take up endless column inches and political attention this year. This will take several phases.
We are currently in the first phase, where left-wing politicians and activists demand that the FAI boycotts the games, and refuses to play them. This, for very simple reasons, cannot happen. First, because the Football Association of Ireland is in a miserable financial position and owes tens of millions of euros to UEFA and FIFA. It would face a double financial whammy by refusing to play the fixtures, both in terms of lost ticket revenue and potential fines.
It is also just competitively unsustainable: For all that the nation’s league is a silly competition, winning their group will matter to Ireland in terms of international seedings and rankings for future qualification groups for big tournaments. And, no disrespect to our Israeli, or Kosovan opponents, but Ireland really should be co-favourites with Austria to win that group. The sporting cost would be unacceptably high, and unfair to Ireland’s players, who are blameless in all of this regardless of your views on whether the game should be played.
The second stage will be the witch-hunt stage: God help the Dublin Hotel that agrees to host the Israeli team. God help the club or facility that allows them to train before the match. God help any company that does business in Ireland that is found to have an international arm that sponsors Israeli soccer.
The third stage will be the “demands for a gesture” stage. This will take the form of “if the matches are to be played, the Irish team should engage in some sort of protest”. Perhaps the flying of a flag at the Aviva. Or the team being compelled to wear black armbands. Or the band refusing to play the Hatikvah before the game. Or decking out the whole capital in Palestinian flags to coincide with the arrival of any Israeli fans – Dublin City Council will surely see to that.
Or of course, there’s the other outcome, which now looks likely to comprise the fourth stage: That the game simply cannot be played in Dublin because of the threat of violence towards Israeli fans. That, apparently, is something the FAI is actively considering. This outcome would be deeply embarrassing for the country internationally, given the message it would send about Irish antisemitism – our Capital City simply being unable to guarantee the well-being of Jewish Israeli visitors.
It is important here to recognise each of these phases as they occur, and to name them for what they are: An exercise in moral masturbation. This is a point that cannot be made enough: There is no outcome to this saga that will materially affect the policy of the Israeli state in one direction or another. The only country likely to feel any consequences, depending on how this plays out, is our own. The Government finds itself in a position where it has one of two bad choices: Either it lets the game go ahead in Dublin in the rock-solid certainty that there will be an ugly atmosphere and the very best that could be hoped for is no actual violence; or it asks that the game be moved, sending internationally the signal that Israelis would not be safe in Dublin.
And of course, the context here needs no repeating: This comes after an Irish boycott of Eurovision; political efforts to de-name the only public space in Dublin named for a Jewish person; and the Government’s ongoing and frustrated efforts to enact some kind of boycott legislation against Jewish settlements on the West Bank of the Jordan River. Add to those the spectacle of violence against Israeli football fans in Dublin and the Irish State’s ongoing insistence that it is not antisemitic, just misunderstood, will be harder and harder to take credibly.
I come back to the question I asked above: What happens if the Israelis qualify for the Euro 2028 tournament, and their group games are scheduled to be played in Ireland? Are we to take it that this country, having assured Europe’s football authorities that we could host a major international tournament, won’t let one of the teams play?
The Soccer Gods may save us from answering that question. Or, they may not.
You’ll note in this article that I have offered no solutions. That is because there are no solutions. The forthcoming mess over the soccer matches is an inevitable and foreseeable consequence of the Government’s policy in this area since October 2023, when it positioned itself as Israel’s foremost geopolitical foe outside the Muslim world. From the beginning, it did so with no regard to Ireland’s own interests, or the kind of political forces it was unleashing inside its own borders.
There was an inevitability then, that something like this might happen. Now it has, and our governing class has to find a way to deal with it that does not embarrass the country. Good luck.