I confess I enjoyed Saturday morning. Not so much for the result of the election, which was a foregone conclusion. Not even solely for the 200,000 spoiled votes, which was a welcome reminder to many of us that we are not alone.
No, I enjoyed – as I always do when these things happen – the utter befuddlement of Ireland’s media, the least in-touch people in the western world. With a couple of honourable exceptions, they just hadn’t seen it coming, and were entirely unsure what to say. I even treated myself to something I never do, and watched 15 minutes of RTE’s coverage, to see David McCullough try to figure out the vote spoilers with his crack panel of Theresa Reidy, Alison O’Connor, and Aidan Regan – three Connolly voters trying to decipher why people they would struggle to justify talking to in real life had rejected the election that each of them couldn’t see a problem with. There was enough mouth gaping and eyebrow raising to power a small nuclear reactor, if the energy crisis keeps driving prices up.
But at the end of the day, here is what happened on Saturday: Ireland elected a hard-left President with a supermajority of votes. 13% or so of us who voted (about 6% of the electorate) rejected the entire process, and another 56% of the electorate sat at home.
It is not enough for those of us who desire political change in this country to cheer disillusionment with the system, even when, as in this case, that disillusionment is a reaction to a deliberate strategy to limit voter choice.
There are a few things that need to be admitted.
First, that 13% of the voters being disillusioned enough to spoil their votes does not a majority make. Polls suggest that there are majorities in this country who agree with certain propositions – on migration for example it is very clear that a supermajority agrees that inward migration has been too high, for too long. Similarly on issues like crime, taxation, and free speech, majorities may agree with a need for change. But that does not mean you can rely on the electoral support of those majorities.
Second, that the problem in Ireland is not necessarily one of governance, but of polarity: Put simply, the gravitational pull of politics is towards the left. The day to day discussion in the Oireachtas is dominated by left-wing opposition parties, not parties of the right. This has the net effect of constantly pulling the Government ever leftwards.
Third, that unity around a shared proposition – that votes should be spoiled – masks the broader problem of absolute political disunity on the Irish “right”. There are two electoral vehicles that might broadly fall into that category (though Aontu would reject the label “right leaning” and Independent Ireland under present leadership might struggle to justify the label “political vehicle”).
Nevertheless, these two entities are the only shows in town. Talk of new parties is nonsensical and immature: There are at least two very fine communicators – Peadar Toibin and Ken O’Flynn – in the two existing vehicles, either of which is very capable of showing leadership.
Fourth, that the Irish “right” has a real “toxic influencer” problem. Put simply, there are a number of prominent online figures whose personal imperative to enhance and grow their own “brands” and audience comes at the expense of political unity and purpose. It is always easier to be the advocate of purity and extremism than it is to build a broad political movement around various goals and objectives, and it is always easier to yell “traitor” than it is to forge compromise.
Fifth, there is real resistance to electoral reality: My colleague Laura wrote yesterday that a “right wing coalition” will of necessity, should it come to pass, include one or both of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Some readers noted the basic sense of this, others derided it as something near treason. But the electoral reality is that absent winning 51% of the vote four years from now (even Donald Trump has only done this once, and Nigel Farage is not close), any successful alternative movement will have to coalesce with somebody. The one benefit to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s ideological emptiness is that they are just that: ideologically empty enough to justify sharing power with just about anybody.
And sixth, that the political left in this country is strong, resilient, and organised. The Connolly campaign certainly benefitted from the implosion of centrist politics in Ireland, but it also delivered some 900,000 votes in the face of concerted opposition from elements of the media and political establishment. We should not delude ourselves that these people are weak: They have built enormous institutional real-world support and permeated vast swathes of establishment Ireland from academic institutions to business and commerce and the law. By contrast, this outlet aside, there are very few Irish institutions that are clearly and unambiguously aligned “right”. Changing that is actually more important, long term, than political success.
The appetite for change in Ireland is very real – I detect it myself every time I go out in public when people approach me and express it. But political change does not occur without work, strategy, compromise, and a recognition of the task.
So, enjoy the spoiled votes – it was a genuinely encouraging moment. But then remember that there is an enormous job to do.