Comhgairdeachas to Catherine Connolly who swept to victory against one other candidate in the awful charade that was the race for the Áras. When all the analysis has faded away, the result remains, and she is now Uachtarán na hÉireann for the next seven years.
However, the role is a fairly toothless one, despite the best efforts of Michael D. to politicise it, which is why the sheer magnitude of the spoiled votes, and what that symbolises, is far more interesting that the result of a two-horse race which failed to bring even half of the electorate out to vote.
In any case, a lot of political analysis, in my opinion, is based on the wisdom of hindsight and is about as useful as a chocolate teapot. The winner, in retrospect, will always be declared with certainty to have had the best candidacy, the best campaign, the best social media outreach, etc, etc, when the electorate can have a distinctly unknowable element, polling can be seriously off, and public mood can be very hard to read.
In truth, its likely that Catherine Connolly can’t believe her luck. An election with five candidates may have produced a very different outcome, but the large parties – and yes that includes Sinn Féin – acted to block independents, Fianna Fáil scored an almost unbelievable own goal, and most of the electorate stayed home or expressed their frustration and dissatisfaction by spoiling their vote. As has been observed by some commentators, some of the vote for Jim Gavin could be taken as a protest vote, and that’s before any serious analysis is undertaken of the dismal turnout.
(In that respect, it’s almost comical to see Mary Lou McDonald on television criticising Fine Gael for a decision to “actively block” other candidates from getting on the ticket. It was “ill conceived”, the Sinn Féin leader opined, adding “I think it was a mistake and I think it backfired on them.” Perhaps she thinks voters can’t see that her party also failed to allow independent candidates a chance, as even a cursory examination of how their representatives acted at council level shows. Not one Sinn Féin or Senator was permitted to sign nomination papers for an independent candidate either. The spin is shameless.)
Catherine Connolly is President, then, on support from about a quarter of the electorate because the centre-right parties contrived and fumbled to produce a race where it was one candidate against Fine Gael, and Fine Gael’s support is currently significantly below where the final tally of Humphrey’s vote came in. The party won 21% of the vote in last year’s election, so in fairness to Heather Humphreys she managed to pull in almost a hundred thousand more votes than might be expected for an unpopular government party, who are partners in a Coalition for which a July poll found that just 14% of voters believed were successfully tackling the country’s problems.
Some of those who voted for Connolly then were likely to have been voting against the government, and there are surely enough issues to motivate that anger: housing, immigration, the endless cost of living crisis, emigration of young people, chaos in hospitals, the appalling manner in which children with scoliosis have been left to suffer, and much more. An interesting question then, is whether the Connolly victory was a powerful symbol of a united left and a basis on which great gains could be made, or whether it would be back to after the election.
Paul Murphy, who has been credited with bringing the smaller left parties together behind Connolly before Sinn Féin – seemingly unable to choose a candidate of their own – hopped on board, clearly felt the victory signalled hope and promise, posting that this was a “genuinely historic” victory (it wasn’t, as my indefatigable colleague Ben Scallan pointed out), and that “the movement must continue.” Indeed, Murphy “was already calling for a meeting to agree on a strategy for the Galway West by-election, which will be triggered by Ms Connolly’s elevation”, RTÉ News reported.
Alas for the PBPers, in truth, the great hope of an enduring left alliance doesn’t seem to have lasted days. Already, Sinn Féin have confirmed that it’s back to every man, woman and party for itself in the by-election.
On Sunday, Ms McDonald was asked on RTÉ’s The Week in Politics about the possibility of a united left candidate in the by-election. She said: “Sinn Féin will contest the byelection. We’re all individual, distinct parties.”
She did add that she thought there might be a transfer pact amongst left-wing candidates. As ever, and perhaps as expected given the competitive nature of politics, its the preference for one’s own party and the egos within parties that prevent coalitions and movements from continuing. Catherine Connolly’s sister is rumoured to be interested in running. An ambitious family then, despite the home-spun image, but good luck to them, ambition is needed for politics too.
All this, of course, is equally true for the right, especially given the multiplicity of new parties and the fractured nature of the growing movement of people who are upset and disenfranchised at the direction the country is headed. They spoke loudly in the Spoil the Vote campaign, but they need the sort of unity that Paul Murphy wishes for the left in order to prosper. The by-election may serve as a opportunity for progress in that regard.