Fianna Fáil are a “laughing stock” one most-likely stunned TD is reported to have said last night after the shock announcement that Jim Gavin had withdrawn from the Presidential race. MEP Billy Kelleher says Gavin’s candidacy was a ‘serious miscalculation’. It is certainly a mortifying development for the party.
Micheál Martin is a “dead man walking” opined plenty of other commentators online, and the faction within the party that would have preferred Bertie Ahern or any other candidate above a nominee with no prior electoral experience or scrutiny may be seeing this not so much as a calamity as an opportunity, though as one seasoned political observer said to me this morning, they would need to move fast.
As ever, there are wheels within wheels, and the contingent within Fianna Fáil most likely to move against Martin’s leadership will point to the Gavin fiasco as yet another reason to support a heave. The leader’s insistence on Gavin as candidate despite the fact that he was a political neophyte is hugely damaging, they will say, though in truth the bigger picture in that regard is the growing preference amongst the larger parties for celebrity candidates, in particular for election battles where name recognition matters more than the party brand.
Whatever about the internecine strife in Fianna Fáil, Gavin seemed to struggle from the outset. The race for the Áras is notoriously nasty, and he seemed stilted in debate and often unsure of his answers. Yesterday’s Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll showed Catherine Connolly leading the race on 32%, with Heather Humphreys on 23% and Jim Gavin trailing on 15%. Then came his disastrous appearance on The Week in Politics where he failed to evade questions from Áine Lawlor on money he owed to a former tenant of a property that was unregistered at the time.
“I made a mistake that was not in keeping with my character and the standards I set myself. I am now taking steps to address the matter,” he said as he withdrew from the race. “I have also thought long and hard about the potential impact of the ongoing campaign on the wellbeing of my family and friends.
Many onlookers might feel some measure of sympathy for the man and wince at the brutal nature of politics – though Minister Jack Chambers, who was also Gavin’s director of election, has now said that the party was contacted by the former tenant on Saturday who gave information to the party that had not previously been given by Gavin.
It’s a monumental mess, but the farcical nature of the entire set-up of this race will now be brought into sharp relief with just two candidates left on the ballot. Fianna Fáil – along with Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and the rest – essentially told the electorate that they – and only they – should be trusted to choose credible and trustworthy candidates. Due diligence could be taken for granted. Those with unsuitable opinions or skeletons in their closets and who might otherwise make it onto the ballot would be excluded by the political establishment, not as an act of political censorship, but in order to preserve the integrity of the Presidency.
Those reassurances are in tatters now this morning. And the ‘choice’ left to the electorate is likely to seem unacceptable to a growing number of voters.
In fact, since the political parties contrived to exclude all but three selected candidates from the ballot, the initiative to spoil the vote in protest has not diminished. Those who were furious at the political establishment for denying them their right to have a real choice of candidates seemed to have grown in number and in volume. As I wrote previously:
The political cartel is literally terrified to give voters a chance to deliver another bloody nose as happened in the landslide double NO last year. That was a rejection of the parties and all their works; a two-fingers to the establishment and their NGOs and their endless condescension; a statement of discontent with the path this country is being relentlessly driven down by a cohort who don’t give a damn for the nation and her people.
And they want to take action, precisely because they have seen what staying at home in disgust does: it merely consolidates the power of the political parties who continue to assume governance of the country with a ever-shrinking proportion of voters. Better to go to the booth and express that anger in a deliberately spoiled vote that sends a powerful message. If you are tired of being ignored and despised by the political class, let that be known loud and clear.
Now, with Gavin’s withdrawal reducing the field to a two-horse race, the contest seems even more of a curated farce, particularly given the finding in yesterday’s poll that Maria Steen – who like Nick Delehanty, Gareth Sheridan and other credible candidates was blocked from entering the contest – would likely have been ahead of Gavin at this stage.
There’s a stink of political censorship and a distrust of the electorate off this election that’s now palpable, and has been underscored by the monumental mess Fianna Fáil has made of its entry. Voters might remember that not only did Micheál Martin insist on Jim Gavin as candidate, he put pressure on TDs and Councillors to stop them supporting a nomination for other independent candidates. The whole charade can only increase the desire amongst a growing number of voters to indicate their disgust by spoiling the vote.
Of course, for almost 60 years, the race to be Uachtarán was often a two or three horse affair, perhaps reflecting the civil war divide which continued for decades after 1923. The contest remained tightly controlled in that way until 1997 when Dana Rosemary Scallon and Derek Nally persuaded the county councils to give them a chance. That shift also represented a more fragmented electorate, and an increase in those numbers that increasingly feel disenfranchised – and feel they are held in contempt by the political establishment.
Now, as Peadar Tóibín pointed out this morning, you’d need to go back 52 years to find a field this narrow. It was always likely that October 24th would see a low turnout, but the shambles that the race has now become, and the anger at those who feel that the charade is also a denial of democracy because of the exclusion of candidates, can only boost the #SpoilTheVote campaign.