For weeks, it looked as if the Fine Gael presidential nomination would be a quiet affair, with Mairead McGuinness tipped as the obvious candidate and frontrunner. Then, tragically, health troubles forced her to withdraw. (We wish her well).
That blew the race wide open. Suddenly the field for a Fine Gaeler is open again, and two names with very different profiles have thrown their hats into the ring: Heather Humphreys and Seán Kelly.
It would be unwise to write either of these candidates off at this juncture.
Heather Humphreys will be seen, in many ways, as the archetypal “safe pair of hands” candidate. Until her retirement last year she had been a fixture at cabinet for a decade, most recently holding the Social Protection and Rural Development portfolios.
Those are the kind of briefs that put a minister on the road almost permanently. For years, she was photographed cutting ribbons, announcing schemes, and throwing so-called “free” money at rural towns and community groups.
To be fair, it doesn’t take a lot of skill or effort to toss public money around like confetti. But that will have built her a reputation as a minister who “delivered for rural Ireland”. In a presidential election, that visibility in parishes and villages matters enormously.
She also stands out in one respect that is unusual in Irish politics: as a Protestant from Monaghan, she may be seen as a natural “bridge” figure to Northern Ireland, at least symbolically, at a time when questions of identity and reconciliation across the border are still politically charged. That kind of detail could carry weight when it comes to discussions around a United Ireland, which remain ongoing. Coming from a border county is a significant plus.
Her father was actually a member of the Orange Order, while her grandfather signed the Ulster Covenant opposing Home Rule in 1912.
Humphreys is not the most charismatic politician, and is not a natural orator. It seems hard to image she will electrify a crowd with some humdinger of an energetic speech or quip. But that blandness is not necessarily a weakness in a presidential campaign. The electorate has shown time and again that it prefers presidents who are safe, steady, and free from sharp ideological edges. For Humphreys, being perceived as inoffensive is not a liability – it may be a strength. In fact, being a mad bomb thrower with too strong of a personality can easily backfire.
Meanwhile, Seán Kelly comes at the race from a very different angle. His career has not been defined by cabinet portfolios, but by his deep roots in the GAA. As President of the Association from 2003 to 2006, Kelly built relationships in almost every parish of the country. The GAA remains one of the most formidable grassroots networks in Ireland, and that legacy gives him a reach that no other candidate can match. When Kelly runs for election, he is not just a politician asking for votes. He is “Mr. GAA,” a man whose reputation is instantly recognisable in towns and clubs across the island.
That reach has translated into hard numbers at the ballot box. In the last two European elections in the sprawling Ireland South constituency, Kelly topped the poll with comfortable margins. That is no small feat, and it demonstrates that his popularity is not confined to GAA die-hards but extends to ordinary voters who see him as approachable, energetic, and connected.
What makes this an intriguing contest for Fine Gael is that the party finds itself with two strong but very different options. Neither is a radical. Neither is divisive. Neither is likely to trigger the kind of controversy that could sink a presidential campaign before it gets going.
That in itself tells a story about Fine Gael’s strategy. The party does not want fireworks or culture war ideological battles in this race. It doesn’t want to spend the campaign talking about transgender bathrooms and hate speech laws. It wants a candidate who can unify, appeal broadly, and avoid the kind of ideological rows that dominate other parts of public life.
In Humphreys and Kelly, it has exactly that. Both are safe in their own ways.
For that reason, this is a real contest. It is not a coronation, and it is not a sideshow. Fine Gael members are facing a genuine choice between two heavyweights, each of whom has a plausible claim to the nomination and a credible path to the Áras. Whatever way the vote goes, this battle is going to shape not just the party’s presidential campaign but its broader image in the months to come.