The second of TG4’s polls of the six constituencies containing Gaeltacht communities suggests that Fine Gael may fail to retain the seat vacated by recently retired TD Joe McHugh – which if memory serves me correctly would be the first time since the foundation of the state that a Fine Gael – or Cumann na nGaedhael – TD has not represented the county, which was previously divided.
According to the poll, Fine Gael may well lose its seat to Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher of Fianna Fáil who is returning to the fray this time having lost out in 2020 to party colleague and Minister for Agriculture, Charlie McConalogue, whose seat appears to be safe. Their combined vote along with less than 1% for another FF candidate, Claudia Kennedy, is up around 5% on their performance in 2020.
Sinn Féin are still comfortably the largest party in the constituency but according to the poll their support level has slipped from a massive 45.1% in 2020 to 35%. However, despite the failure of Councillor Noel Jordan to make an impact as a third candidate both sitting TDS Pearse Doherty and Pádraig Mac Lochlainn look pretty certain to be re-elected.
Sinn Féin will be happy to have recovered some of the ground lost, to the 100% Redress Party in particular, in the June local elections when they only took 22% of the vote. However, the slippage from the high of 2020 and the apparent failure of the attempt to make a serious challenge and take a third seat does not augur well for whatever ambitions Sinn Féin had overall to become the largest party and to position itself as the main component of the next government.
What it also proves is that where it has high profile and competent TDs like Doherty and Mac Lochlainn that it can at least avoid the sort of ominous slide signalled in June across most of the state and in recent opinion polls. Unless the party can recover generally, however, it risks not just failing to pick up new seats but may also lose seats in constituencies where it has been poorly represented both in Leinster House and in the local councils.
The poll figures for those lower down the pecking order (as above) shows that Aontú has not gained traction and Mary McSweeney looks unlikely to surpass the party’s overall vote in the local elections. The same applies to the smaller parties of the left and right although their collective transfers will come into play and will be required especially by Independent left TD Thomas Pringle.
This poll has Pringle on 11% which would be a substantial improvement on the 7.1% he secured in 2020. On that occasion he was in 6th position after the first count but he benefited from a large transfer from the surplus of Pearse Doherty and Pearse Mac Lochlainn and later from the transfers of the Greens, Aontú, and other independents. He may not be as dependent on transfers this time but they will still be a factor.
Fine Gael will be disappointed with the showing of John McNulty and Nikki Bradley who are both on 6%. That represents only a small increase on the Fine Gael vote in Donegal in the local elections in which they lost 3 council seats and neither of the candidates none of who are elected councillors nor even competed in June are likely to pick up the same internal party transfer or from other candidates which got McHugh over the line four years ago.
Most disappointed with the poll, however, will be the 100% Redress Party which is contesting the election on the issue of the payments to householders who were impacted by the Mica faults in houses built in the county. Their candidates secured a large vote of over 7,000 in June which helped them to elect four councillors.
Curiously, their candidate Charlie Ward failed in his bid to be elected in the Lifford-Stranoler local election area and according to this poll they look unlikely to get the almost 10% of the votes secured in the county in June. Some of that may be to do with the fact that several of the sitting TDs have consistently raised the issue in the Dáil.
Polls are not infallible of course and it has been pointed out that the Sinn Féin did better in the 2020 election than in the equivalent TG4 poll. The poll largely confirms the level of party support from the local elections with the failure of the 100% Redress candidate to either build on their vote or to take substantially from the 30% that went in the local elections to other Donegal independents.