The first major poll on a key constituency has returned some interesting findings; some of them predictable, others not so much. As the TG4 graphic below illustrates, three of the five sitting TDs – Independents Catherine Connolly and Noel Grealish, along with Fine Gael Minister for State for Education Hildegarde Naughton, appear on the evidence of the poll to be heading for re-election.
The figures – and they come with the caveat of a 4% margin of error and the fact that there are two weeks campaigning left – look slightly ominous for Mairead Farrell of Sinn Féin who is on 9%. She took 14% of the first preferences in 2020 and was comfortably returned on the 8th count.
Sinn Féin only took 6% and won one of 18 seats in the City Council area in June. They were similarly weak in the local election wards for the County Council area which make up the rest of the Galway West constituency and will be hoping that Farrell’s high profile and regular appearances on Raidió na Gaeltachta and elevation to Chair of the Committee of Public Accounts will push her above what appears to be a downward trend in the party’s fortunes.
The main factor is the absence of long time Fianna Fáil TD and former minister Eamon Ó Cuiv who topped the poll in 2020 just ahead of Farrell by 58 votes on the first count. Ó Cuiv who has at times been at odds with the more recent liberal trend of the party and voted against its support for legalising abortion announced his retirement in July.
According to the TG4 poll the overall Fianna Fáil vote is down from 22.7% to 14% mostly due probably to the Ó Ciuv factor although that ought to be enough to ensure the election of either Councillor John Connolly or former broadcaster Gráinne Seoige.
Connolly is on the city council while Seoige presumably will be hoping to do particularly well in Conamara on the basis of her connection to TG4. The Fianna Fáil vote in both the Conamara wards slumped dramatically between 2019 and the elections in June. That, in combination with the absence of Ó Cuiv who was hugely popular among Gaeltacht communities will present Seoige with a massive task to take what is still likely to be one FF seat.
The main beneficiary of the slump in the Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin vote would appear to be former Fianna Fáil and now Independent Ireland Councillor Noel Thomas who comes on 8%. As reported here Councillor Thomas came to national prominence over his criticism of a decision to site an IPAS centre in Conamara.
His house was raided last January and he resigned when facing an internal Fianna Fáil inquiry. He stood in Conamara South in the June local elections and topped the poll. The strong Independent Ireland and migration critical vote in the two Conamara wards boded ill for both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin and that appears to be confirmed by the weak showing for Farrell and celebrity candidate Gráinne Seoige
Fine Gael will be pleased with their poll numbers which is in line with their overall polling nationally. According to TG4 their vote will increase from 18.1% in 2020 to 23% which gives Seán Kyne an outside chance of joining Naughton and winning an extra seat for Fine Gael. However, he might also suffer if Thomas benefits more from an early Fianna Fáil elimination and there is a weak government party transfer rate.
Catherine Connolly, whose vote according to the poll is up 4% and Grealish who is slightly down since 2020 on 12%, are likely to be safe. Connolly is best placed to pick up transfers from Labour, the Greens and Social Democrats who according to the poll have 12% between them. A strong transfer from that quarter would also be crucial to Farrell’s chances of retaining her seat and might be frustrated if Catherine Connolly is not elected until later counts.
According to the numbers as they stack up in the published figures, there is another 9% which is divided between candidates from Aontú, People Before Profit, the Irish Freedom Party and Irish People and two other independents including Councillor Mike Cubbard who is on 3% personally. Cubbard took over 4% in 2020 and his transfers heavily favoured Connolly, Farrell and other left candidates.
Aontú, PBP and the IFP all did poorly in the local elections in Galway West and their transfers will only be marginally significant. On the basis of this poll, my prediction would be that the five seats will go to Catherine Connolly, Hildegarde Naughton, Noel Grealish, Noel Thomas and Councillor John Connolly of Fianna Fáil.