Many commentators have remarked, accurately, on the similarities between the riots in England over the past few days and the anti-immigration protests here in Ireland, several of which have also turned violent in recent months. The similarities, I think, extend beyond the superficial and also extend to the deep state of immigration purgatory in which both societies find themselves in.
Structurally, the protests in both countries are similar in their makeup. They disproportionately draw from poorer, working-class communities. At the same time, revulsion at the protests is shared by similar groups in both societies: The middle classes, the media, the academic and cultural institutions that sit atop the respectability pyramid in both countries.
The basic argument between protesters and those repulsed by the protesters is identical in both nations: Those protesting are, by and large, drawn to an ethno-centric sense of nationalism – England for the English, Ireland for the Irish. Those repulsed are horrified by such sentiments, and wish to live in a multi-cultural, multi-ethnic society. In both sets of protests, there are some voices that are loudly and openly racist and can expect as a result to be amplified with disdain by the media, mixed in with those with more immediate and local concerns about the pressure imposed on their services and infrastructure by large numbers of new arrivals.
And in both countries, the protests are alienating more people than they are persuading due to the structure of the society in which they live.
The evidence for this is empirical: This weekend, the Sunday Independent ran a poll by Ireland Thinks. The conclusions of that poll were what you’d call a “mixed bag”, but the picture is clear enough if you look closely:
Immigration remains the second most important priority for voters and this month, we see that 62pc believe Ireland has taken in too many refugees in the past year (up 6pc since February 2023).
But then a little later on we find:
Perhaps the most critical statistic here is the fact that 31pc agree with the protesters and 59pc disagree with them, with the rest unsure.
By a very similar margin of 56pc to 32pc, most people believe gardaí should have been tougher with anti-asylum-seeker protesters.
This is not two different polls. This is the same set of people: Roughly 60% agree that immigration is too high, and roughly 60% want to see the cops getting tougher with anti-immigration protesters. If you wanted to design a political movement for maximum incompetence, you couldn’t do much better than one where 60% of voters agree with it, but 60% of voters also want to see it whipped off the street by the police.
That said, the reason I’ve entitled this piece “immigration purgatory” is that we’re essentially stuck here: In both the UK and Ireland, the number of people dissatisfied enough about immigration to cause real trouble via riots and protests and political disruption is large enough that the state is unable, functionally to contain it. Yet that number is also too small to do anything about their issue outside of riots and protests and political disruption.
And in the other corner, there sits an establishment implacably opposed to doing anything at all that might placate the discontented.
It, by contrast, is large enough to be assured of an effective monopoly on political power, the media, and the cultural institutions. Yet it is simultaneously too weak and too unpopular to impose its vision on society at large without enormous unrest.
So, for argument’s sake, the state can crack down: The British can round up and imprison thousands of rioters. The Irish state can borrow a water cannon or two, and crack down on hate speech. RTE and the BBC can produce more documentaries about the rise of the far right. And then… what?
While immigration continues to rise, the very sentiments fuelling the 20-30% of the population that is enraged will not abate, despite all of the above. No state can manage a situation where one third of the population is implacably opposed to it and where a substantial number of that 30% is willing to resort to violence.
At the same time, 30% is not enough to take power, even were it organised. Yet in truth much of the anti-immigration movement is exactly as portrayed: A conspiratorial, disorganised, extremist rabble led in large part by individuals like Tommy Robinson in the UK and Justin Barrett and John Waters in Ireland, whom the wider public find repulsive.
Ultimately, the responsibility for all of this lies with those in power: Successive Governments who have pursued – across both jurisdictions – an immigration policy which has produced this intractable cultural and increasingly ethnic conflict. Yet the disastrous impact of that policy has not proven – nor is it likely to prove – fatal to the survival of the political establishment in either country.
There was another figure in that Ireland Thinks poll over the weekend which illustrates the point: Asked to choose, if they had to, between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, fully 75% of Irish people said they would vote for the Democrat, and only 18% for Donald Trump. This, in the same dataset where 62% of people said immigration is too high. In that same set of figures, 44% of Irish people said they were worried about the rise of the far right.
The public may well share the concerns of those protesting on the specific issue of immigration, but on almost every other cultural touchstone the public is more aligned with the mainstream than it is with the Irish Freedom Party or the lads holding St. George’s flags in Sunderland.
There are but two ways out of this: First, the Governments of Ireland and the UK could radically shift policy. Second, those organising resistance to their policy could step back and realise that their tactics, methods, and tone are actively repulsive to a majority of voters.
Neither thing is likely to happen – for cultural reasons in both cases. The Government cannot move in the direction of the “far right” without losing support from those concerned about its rise. And the “far right” cannot move towards the centre without losing street cred and twitter likes.
Thus, purgatory. For, I fear, many years to come.