The difference between the immigration policy of the Government and the shiny new immigration policy of Sinn Fein might be best summed up by the opening line of the sixth paragraph of the statement issued by the leader of the opposition over the weekend.
“Community engagement is not about vetoes”:
After meeting with residents and community groups in Coolock, I’ve written to @SimonHarrisTD
— Mary Lou McDonald (@MaryLouMcDonald) July 20, 2024
The government needs to urgently engage with residents.
Calm must be restored.
This is a decent, proud community that must be heard and respected. pic.twitter.com/gquxqgXFXo
For all the waffle, the bottom line is clear: On the central question of whether 500 to 1500 migrants should be accommodated in a disused factory in Coolock, the Government and the official opposition agree. The only difference is that Sinn Fein would like to do more to convince the local community of the benefits of the thing that will – in either case – happen whether the local community wants it to or not.
On twitter, at the weekend, I said that the Sinn Fein statement was almost perfectly calibrated to alienate all sides. On the one hand, the party is very clearly saying to those protesting in Coolock that the thing they are protesting will go ahead, come hell or high water. On the other hand, the party appears to be giving aid and comfort to those protesting by blaming the Government for a lack of engagement, drawing the ire of the left in the process by appearing to “excuse” “far right” violence.
And then there’s the other point: Mary Lou McDonald says in her statement that she met community groups and local residents in Coolock in advance of issuing her statement. Those involved in the protests have been very clear that she did not meet with them – so who exactly did she meet with? I’ve asked the Sinn Fein press office, and as yet have not received a reply. If past is prologue, I won’t be receiving one – but if they happen to surprise me, I will of course update this piece with their answer. It strikes me as highly unlikely, though, that those involved in the protests are lying about the lack of a meeting, since that would be an incredibly foolish thing to do. The logical explanation is that Mary Lou’s “meeting” was with friendly groups on the pro-immigration side, rather than with anyone actually upset about developments in the area.
One of the interesting things last week, I thought, was the Sinn Fein leader’s other statement, which came after a video circulated online wherein a masked man appeared to threaten her life. She reported the video to the Gardai – as she should – and an arrest was subsequently made. In that statement, however, McDonald said the following:
“This death threat is an escalation in a vicious, sexist, misogynistic, racist campaign against me that has been ongoing for over a year and that has been politically contrived to cause problems between me and the working class communities we in Sinn Féin represent.”
That language is interesting, is it not? The campaign against her has been “politically contrived”, she says, “to cause problems between me and the working-class communities we in Sinn Fein represent”. There’s more than a hint of conspiracy theorising there, especially in the use of the word “contrived” which suggests that some mastermind somewhere has essentially come up with the immigration issue as a deliberate ploy to harm Sinn Fein politically. A more reasonable explanation might simply be that Sinn Fein has made a hames of its response to a political issue which has been brewing now for a number of years.
But psychologically, I think, the statement about the issue being “contrived” is a useful window into where Sinn Fein are at, in their own heads: As far as the party is concerned, they’re the victims in all of this. The party was on course to win the next election, had done everything right by focusing on health and housing relentlessly, was moving towards the centre and reassuring the markets that a Sinn Fein Government could be trusted, and then this immigration issue popped up and spoiled it all. There’s a real sense from the party, I think, that it’s just not fair. And as a result, there’s more than a little petulance.
Now, late in the day and with more than a little recalcitrance, Sinn Fein is trying to acknowledge political reality: That for many of the people who trusted it in the past, this immigration issue is a litmus test about whether the party really stands with them, or whether it is just the same as all of the other parties. Hence the plamásing, if not outrightly patronising, words in the Saturday statement about the good people of Coolock and how decent the community is. The problem is that those protesting in Coolock don’t want to be called good or decent: They want the Government to reverse course on the accommodation of migrants in a disused factory.
On that question, however, Sinn Fein still stands with the Government, not the community. The main difference is that Mary Lou will call the locals decent and upstanding, while others will call them disgraceful, while both make the same ultimate decision. It’s the emptiness of Irish politics being exposed with more brutality than usual.
Two things seem reasonably obvious to me: First, that immigration, far from fading as an issue, is going to end up being a major issue in the general election to come. Second, that Sinn Fein, despite attempts to straddle the fence at this belated stage, are in real, real trouble here, and that it’s not going to get better for them.
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