The population of the Republic of Ireland may exceed seven million by the year 2057 under a “high migration” scenario examined by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
According to new data released today, the range of the projected Irish population by 2057 “[varies] widely…depending on different migration scenarios.”
Depending on the amount of “net migration per annum”, the CSO scenarios see the Republic’s population reaching 7 million, 6.4 million, or 5.7 million respectively by the middle of the century.
Currently, as of the last census in 2022, Ireland’s population stands at around 5.1 million.
“The key change in each of these scenarios is the net migration per annum,” the statistics body said in a statement.
“Assumptions regarding fertility and mortality remain constant across the three scenarios.”
For the purposes of the research, a “low migration” scenario is considered one in which net inward migration starts off high based on current numbers, but then “tapers” to 25,000 migrants per year by 2027, and goes down again to 10,000 a year by 2032. It also assumes that Ireland would see Ukrainian migrants “returning home in large numbers.”
Under a “medium migration” scenario, “net inward migration is assumed to be 75,000 in 2023 based on the recent high levels, and then will taper to 30,000 people by 2032.” It’s also assumed that Ireland would see “an increased proportion of Ukrainian migrants returning home.”
Under a “high migration”, “This will start in 2023 with net inward migration of 75,000 based on the recent high levels and then will taper to 45,000 people by 2028.” The CSO adds that the scenario also envisages a “limited” proportion of Ukrainian migrants returning home.
In all three of the scenarios, the CSO noted that by the 2040s, there would be a “natural decrease” in the population – i.e. more deaths than births due to low birthrates and an ageing population.
“The timing of this change depends on the scenario chosen,” they add.
“The number of people aged 65 years and over is set to increase significantly over the period of these projections with the number of people in this age category set to reach over 1 million by 2030.”
They went on to describe Irish migration patterns as “volatile”.
“When the Expert Group examined migration flows over the last 25 years, the volatility in Ireland’s net migration is clear to see,” the CSO said.
“The number of immigrants increased dramatically between 1997 and 2008 with the very sharp increases between 2005 and 2007 attributed to the accession of the ten new EU member states in May 2004. Ireland experienced sustained net inward migration over this period.
“There was a dramatic change in net migration from the late 2000’s to the early 2010’s, with a net outward migration in the early 2010’s during the economic downturn. From the late 2010’s into the early 2020’s there has been an increasing number of inward migrants. These numbers have not reached the peak of the inward migration figures in 2007 where there was an estimated inward net migrations of 104,800 persons.”
Eva Leahy, Statistician at the CSO’s Life Events and Demography Division, explained that these scenarios were “not attempts to forecast the future of population and migration patterns in Ireland” – merely an attempt to “illustrate a range of possible scenarios.”
“The projections illustrate potential future population trends given specific potential scenarios (termed assumptions) for fertility, mortality and migration, as well as labour force participation,” she said.
“This release differs from previous iterations in having a total of three scenarios, based on low, medium and high migration levels. There is an increase in population expected under all three potential scenarios.
“The size of the increase depends on which assumptions are being considered.”
Notably, in 2016, during that year’s European migrant crisis, then-Green Party leader Eamon Ryan talked about the importance of being able to “bring in people”.
“We have to start planning for being an island of 10 million people, and among that, bringing in people refugees in scale,” he said.
“Not just 200, but a much larger number than that, and managing it as we do.”