The Ireland South European constituency is possibly slightly less unpredictable than others with regard to the final destination of seats, but nonetheless there are a number of permutations which might arise from the next distribution of transfers.
Seán Kelly of Fine Gael is the only candidate so far elected having comfortably exceeded the quota of 114,761 on the first count. The 17th count of the 38,625 votes accumulated by Derek Blighe of Ireland First have made the position a bit clearer.
Blighe, who came to prominence as a consequence of his involvement in protests against asylum accommodation centres at Fermoy, Co Cork, and other locations, had polled 25,071 votes on the first count. In contrast to some other alternative candidates on the right in other European (most notably Dublin) and local constituencies he did well on transfers.
He increased his initial share of the vote by just over 50% to finish with 38,625 votes just before 11pm on Wednesday. He told the Irish Examiner: “This is only the beginning. We’re going to build on this.”
With the distribution of Blighe’s votes, this is the current state of play, with Sean Kelly already elected.
| Party | 17th Count | 1st Count | Transfers | |
| Billy Kelleher | FF | 107834 | 91074 | 1783 |
| Michael McNamara | IND | 83722 | 56339 | 8132 |
| Kathleen Funchion | SF | 81268 | 50580 | 4751 |
| Mick Wallace | I4C | 71910 | 52803 | 4764 |
| Cynthia Ní Mhurchú | FF | 66198 | 55209 | 837 |
| Grace O’Sullivan | Green | 63923 | 47661 | 588 |
| John Mullins | FG | 43061 | 33281 | 770 |
A huge number of Blighe votes – 17,000 – were non-transferable. That is an indication, in my opinion, that – in contrast to the left myth that the ‘far right’ vote is made up of temporarily disaffected actual right wing voters of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – it is clearly a strong anti-establishment vote.
That is also indicated by the fact that McNamara (who received 8132 votes from Blighe) did best of the individual candidates, while the two remaining non Government lefts, Funchion and Wallace, did reasonably well from him too. This will ensure that Funchion along with McNamara is now safe.
Mullins has now been eliminated so there are six candidates left to fill the remaining four seats. Where Mullins’ transfers will go is a bit of a mystery. There is no Fine Gael candidate left. He is from Cork City as is Kelleher and that factor and the relatively favourable transfers we have seen between the government parties will hardly do the Fianna Fáil man any harm, but he is in any event safe.
Grace O’Sullivan of the Greens may also get some government bounce but is highly unlikely to get ahead of Ní Mhurchú and remain in the contest. The final seat will be between Wallace, Ní Mhurchú and O’Sullivan – with the former Raidió na Gaeltachta presenter being probably the most likely to join Kelly, Kelliher, McNamara and Funchion in the EU Parliament. .