The prospect of a “mass” influx of refugees caused by a potential European war is among key risks facing Ireland, the first government risk assessment carried out in four years has said.
The National Risk Assesment (NRA), published by the Department of Defence on Thursday, revealed that the government views such a risk as “very likely.”
Flagging concern about the impact the influx of refugees would have on the economy, the assessment lists “Mass inward population displacement” as a major potential risk to Ireland.
The assessment cautions that the “reasonable worst-case scenario” is a “mass inward population influx, paired with “an increase in international protection applicants, impacting the carrying capacity of the economy”.
The assessment also reflects current pressures on the State, caused by the number of refugees currently living in Ireland – including more than 80,000 Ukrainians – and the surge in the number of interparional protection applicants. The record-breaking numbers of people arriving in Ireland “underlines the importance of social cohesion and integration efforts,” a supporting document notes.
A survey of members of the Irish public, included in the NRA, shows that people perceive “mass inward displacement” as a “likely” risk which would carry a “high” impact.
The government report notes: “The reasonable worst-case scenario agreed by the Expert Focus Group was war in a European country causing a significant mass inward population influx, coupled with an increase in International Protection applicants, impacting the carrying capacity of the economy.”
The assessment also lists terrorism, pandemics. and cyberattacks as major risks. The report explicitly mentions a “large crowd event” and a “terror attack” among major risks facing Ireland on a civil level. They were listed among 22 key risks, which were divided into 4 Risk Categories, Civil, Natural, Transportation and Technological.
The public rated cyber attack as the highest rated key risk facing Ireland in the report.
The Department of Defence notes: “Cyber attack was also one of four risks receiving the highest rating from the Expert Focus Groups. After cyber attack, a cluster of six risks were rated as likely and having a very high impact.
“These were: damage to undersea infrastructure, disruption to electricity/gas, disruption to critical supply chain disruption to oil supply, water supply disruption and pandemic. Antimicrobial resistant infection, one of the four top rated risks by the Expert Focus Groups, was rated less likely by the public.
Regarding the risk of a future pandemic, authors note: “A highly transmissible virus, for example influenza or coronavirus, on the scale of COVID-19 was the agreed reasonable worst-case scenario.”
Launching the findings of the assessment, conducted last year, the Tánaiste said:
“I am very pleased to be joined by Commissioner Lenarčič today to publish the findings of Ireland’s 2023 National Risk Assessment, supported through assistance from the FUTUREPROOF.IE research project. The purpose of our National Risk Assessment is to provide a basis on which key risks are identified, prioritised and managed.
“The objective is to establish a coordinated approach to national risk management at a central Government level. This new assessment focuses on key risks with the potential to trigger a national level emergency. This is particularly important given the evolving and ever more difficult geopolitical situation we have witnessed unfold across the world in recent years. By outlining the threats and risks we may face in the future, this work empowers us to be better prepared for future crises.”