When thinking about who might become the next leader of Fine Gael, and the sixteenth Taoiseach of Ireland, it is helpful to stop thinking like a normal person, and to start thinking like a Fine Gaeler. A normal person might base their choice on a whole range of considerations ranging from policy (“I’d like someone who’d change tack on immigration”) to cosmetics (“That Simon Harris has a lovely smile”) to locality (“Monaghan is overdue a Taoiseach, Heather Humphreys should go for it”) and lots of other issues.
A Fine Gaeler, by contrast, particularly at this stage of the electoral cycle, has only one real consideration: Who can save my seat and win us the next election?
At the time of writing, there are, at most, five potential candidates for the top job. We can say with some certainty that the next leader will be one of Simon Coveney, Simon Harris, Helen McEntee, Paschal Donohoe, and Heather Humphreys.
Of these, we can probably immediately rule Coveney and McEntee out of contention. Coveney, for the not entirely fair reason that his brother is deeply embroiled in the ongoing RTE scandal, and Fine Gael will not – if they are sensible – want a leader whose “honeymoon” period in office is spent addressing questions about whether his brother’s RTE exit package was appropriate or defensible. Politics is often about timing, and the timing of this vacancy is very bad for Coveney.
McEntee, because, well, there are deep doubts about her basic competence to do the job she has at the moment, let alone the top job. These doubts are shared widely within her own party, but more critically, outside it. If she was simply incompetent in a way the public could not recognise, while still being a votewinner, then this would matter less. Ultimately, though, Fine Gaelers are not going to give her the keys to the car while there are public doubts about her basic ability to drive.
That leaves us with three candidates: Humphreys, Harris, and Donohoe.
Heather Humphreys is a competent and capable politician, widely respected amongst those who know her and work for her. She is known as somebody who puts in the time and effort to master a brief, and rarely puts a foot wrong. In her cabinet career, she has never really been at the centre of a controversy. She represents the proverbial safe pair of hands.
Simon Harris is universally recognised, in the words of one Fine Gaeler outside of the Dáil who I spoke to yesterday, as “so shameless, so self-serving, that he could transform himself into a Thatcherite overnight if he thought it could get him places”. That might sound like a condemnation, but if you think like a Fine Gaeler, it’s not necessarily so. Harris is the best communicator of the bunch, capable of quickly internalising what the voters want and then persuading them that it was really his idea all along. In an election, that’s no bad skill to have. Of the three, Harris is probably the easiest to imagine re-casting Fine Gael as an entirely different party than what it is today. He has, similarly to Micheál Martin, an ability to project sincerity and decency on any topic, regardless of what he is advocating. He also has good political instincts: He has rarely been behind the public mood on any topic. From a pure politics perspective, he may be the most gifted candidate. The problem is few are sure of what he really believes on any topic. If he’s even sure himself.
But that won’t matter, will it? He won the undying loyalty of a section of the media for his performance in the abortion referendum. He is big on TikTok and middle aged Fine Gaelers know that means he is in touch with the youth, even if they’re not sure what TikTok is themselves. He’s also – genuinely – incredibly personable, capable of making even the most convinced Harris-hater melt with his charm in person. That counts for a lot.
In Irish politics, especially Fine Gael and Fianna Fail politics, policy is, and ever has been and will be, an entirely second order concern behind “can this guy get us votes”. Fine Gaelers, many of them, will look at Harris and believe that he can.
The problem is, they thought the same about the last guy, for many of the same reasons.
Then there’s Paschal Donohoe.
Paschal Donohoe has several advantages: First, as Minister for Finance and then public expenditure, he can convincingly claim to be the author of one of this Government’s few genuine success stories. On paper, at least, Ireland’s economic performance under his stewardship has been strong. Can Simon Harris say the same thing about his record in Education or Health?
Second, he is the only candidate who can rival Harris as a communicator. Just go and take a look at his various interviews with my colleague Ben Scallan: Ben has managed to ruffle the feathers of a great many politicians, but I cannot recall him ever managing to unsettle Donohoe or Harris, both of whom have a knack for knowing when to take responsibility for a problem, and pivot to a positive story.
Third, he’s likely the candidate with the broadest appeal: Unlike the other two, he can claim to represent a genuinely working class constituency, and combine a background in central Dublin with a career – bank manager – familiar to rural Ireland. Being the Finance Minister allows him to plausibly claim credit for all Government successes, since he funded them, while distancing himself from failures, because all he did was fund them.
And fourth, there’s temperament: Unlike Harris, Donohoe is widely liked and has few enemies. He’s also never been seen as personally ambitious in the way Harris has. Even the most radical opponents of the Government, when listing their most hated villains, rarely include his name.
Finally, think like a Fine Gaeler: With Humphreys, Harris, or even McEntee, you know what you are getting. They have all built identities of their own. Paschal Donohoe, by contrast, has ever been the loyal servant without much of a public image beyond competent and dependable. You can project almost any idea onto him.
The next election is ultimately going to be a contest between change – represented by Sinn Fein and the left – and economic stability, represented by the current Government. If that’s how the election is framed, then Fine Gaelers will want the most reassuring advocate for economic stability they can find.
The job, therefore, will be Paschal’s if – if – he wants it. The trouble is, most people seem to think he does not. Which means by this as early as this evening, we’ll probably be speaking about incoming Taoiseach Simon Harris.