Look, don’t shout at me: I’m just here to tell you what the polls say. And here, from Richard Colwell of Red C, writing in yesterday’s Sunday Business Post, is what the latest one says:
“Sinn Féin’s support drops back quite heavily. Before reading too much into this, we should take into account that the party did see quite a steep rise in support in May. At the time we suggested this could be due to heavy coverage of successful elections in the North during the time the poll was taken. Today’s poll does appear to bear this theory out, as all the gains seen are lost again.
On the issue raised by President Higgins with regard to the country’s neutrality and security the public are quite unsure how we should move forward. Only a third support the concept of Ireland joining Nato, while a slightly higher proportion (38 per cent) oppose it, but this means well over a quarter of voters are unsure whether we should or not.”
Poll/Pobalbhreith
Q. “Do you support or oppose Ireland joining NATO?”
Oppose: 38%
Support: 34%
Unsure: 28%Via Red C Research
June 2023Note: Reposted to correct earlier typo.
— Ireland Votes | #Vote2024 (@Ireland_Votes) June 25, 2023
“Only” a third support NATO, writes Colwell, but to be honest that’s an awful lot higher than the public coverage of this issue might lead one to think. 33% in favour and 38% opposed is a lot closer than at any time since the foundation of NATO, and indicates that one side of this particular debate is a lot louder than the other, but not necessarily as widely supported as all that noise might lead you to believe.
For what it’s worth, it strikes me that the debate around neutrality suffers from the fact that those most in favour of retaining it are so convinced that they are already in a majority that they feel no real need to persuade anyone else: Shouting about NATO wars and blood for oil is manna to that generation of left wing activist who grew up in the Iraq War era, but to the vast majority of people the idea that the Americans and the British are the global baddies simply does not wash. And so the debate about our neutrality tends to focus much less on the practical benefits or opportunities provided by neutrality than it does on the perceived badness of Joe Biden and the pentagon, which probably sounds odd to a public who were told just two months ago to give Biden a hero’s welcome to Ireland.
Far be it from me to advise those who disagree with me on this topic, but a little less hysteria, including from the Presidential Mansion, might go a long way.
As for Sinn Fein, Colwell’s explanation is that their slump is an unwinding of a bounce that they received from their crushing victory in the local elections in Northern Ireland. As explanations go, it is both logical, and also unsatisfactory. It brings me back to something I’ve written about here before: Sinn Fein’s persistent underperformance in polls.
Sinn Fein is, indisputably, the largest party of opposition and the only party, at present, with the prospect of forming and leading an alternative Government. And yet, despite the unpopularity of the Government it opposes, its polling is exceedingly anaemic. Compare and contrast it, for example, to the UK’s Labour Party, which hit 47% support – almost a majority – in a poll for the UK’s Observer newspaper this weekend. Even granting that there are more opposition parties in Ireland, and even accounting for the different electoral system, Sinn Fein is an opposition party that is underperforming the political fundamentals.
This brings me back to neutrality, because, I suspect, the same dynamics are at play: Sinn Fein has clearly persuaded about a third of the voters that it can safely be trusted in Government, but is really struggling to break beyond that barrier. Like advocates of neutrality, its supporters often speak as if they represent far more of the public than the polling suggests that they do.
At the same time, the party is really struggling to reach beyond the limits of its base: It is caught in a sort of trap where those already voting for it are convinced that it is a rebellious, change-bringing movement, but it struggles mightily to appear interesting to those not already convinced. For example, it has run into a needless mess on the hate speech bill, where its first instincts were to play it safe and go along with the Government, even as opposition to the bill mounted among the public. Now it risks falling into the trap of one-time US Presidential candidate John Kerry: Voting for the bill before voting against it.
The more it does stuff like this, the more Sinn Fein appears just another business as usual party to the very people who want change, while it continues to be too dangerous for those who genuinely want business as usual. Is it a party of radical change? Or is it a responsible left wing party of Government that can be trusted with the public finances? It is trying to ride two horses at once, and stagnating as a result.
Anyway, one thing remains true: There is no political home in Ireland for the voter who is sceptical of immigration, and woke nonsense, and endlessly higher taxes, doesn’t much like RTE or the nanny state, and who doesn’t think of NATO as the baddies. We show up in polls, alright, but then everyone forgets we exist.
Oh well.