Eighty-six to sixty-seven. By a margin of nineteen votes, the Government saw off, yesterday, the motion of no confidence in it proposed by the Labour Party. In Dáil terms, the result was not particularly close. Along with the TDs bound by party whip to support the Government (excepting that of Helen McEntee, still on maternity leave) it received the votes of an array of independents and former Government TDs:
Joe McHugh, Cathal Berry, Sean Canney, Noel Grealish, Michael Lowry, Denis Naughten and Matt Shanahan all voting confidence in the Government
— Seán Defoe (@SeanDefoe) March 29, 2023
In truth, the result was never in doubt. Had the result been in doubt, the Labour Party would never have called the vote – just take a look at the opinion polls. Of all the parties in the Dáil, only Sinn Fein can be truly confident that it would gain seats in an election held next month – and even then only because it would run more candidates to take advantage of the votes it already has, and not because it can be certain that it would get more votes than it did the last time.
TDs hate few things more than they hate early elections. That is a consequence of the professionalization of politics: The political cycle is always scheduled to run on five yearly intervals, and TDs planning and saving up for their next campaign are planning to have the resources in place to fight an election by the end of 2024, rather than the start of 2023. The parties themselves have financial planning frameworks in place, and are already conscious that they have to fight local and European elections next year. Aside from that, being a TD is these people’s jobs, and being an opposition TD is eminently preferable, financially, to not being a TD at all. Elections risk your livelihood, and politicians hate having them unless it’s absolutely necessary, or they are certain that they will gain from such an election.
There’s a reason, too, that the Government does so well in confidence votes with Independents: Elections are easier things when you have a party behind you. Every election, for almost every Independent, is a case of taking your life in your own hands.
Just look at the case of Clare TD Violet Anne Wynne: Elected as a Sinn Fein TD, she is now an independent who would not be a strong bookie’s favourite to retain her seat at the next election. Last week, she voted to retain the eviction ban. This week, she abstained on the vote that might bring about an election on that very issue. Principle, or self interest? I report, you decide.
All of that said, we did learn from the confidence vote that the Government, barring some massively unforeseen crisis, is safe for the duration of its term in office. The Green Party, the one element in the Government that could potentially bring it down, is in too deep now to walk away. It has convinced itself that all of the political pain it is suffering – and the likely loss of up to ten seats at the next election – is worth it only because of what it is achieving in Government on climate change. Were it to walk away from Government now, before those “achievements” are seen through, then it would lose those seats for less value than it might get if it held onto them for another eighteen months.
There are other reasons why an election right now suits nobody, even if they profess to the contrary: Sinn Fein’s biggest challenge, for example, is not winning more votes than it got last time. It might like to, but the bigger problem is finding credible candidates who would make good TDs. It needs more time to do this.
At the last election, people got elected that the party simply did not ever think would get elected. This lead to rather unfortunate incidents where, for example, it transpired that at least one newly elected TD had a history of sending tweets about Israel that strayed perilously close to overt anti-semitism. Others, supporters of the party will admit in private (but never in public) simply aren’t really up to it. They were intended as paper candidates, and now they are national politicians. In Government, the party will need a higher calibre of backbencher – especially given the likelihood that any SF Government would have to disappoint some supporters. You can’t have flakes who’ll jump ship at the first sign of trouble.
So, the party might profess to be gasping for an election, but in reality it knows that time is on its side: The Government is not getting more popular by the hour, and at the same time Sinn Fein needs time to do some more housekeeping of its own.
But as ever in politics, the show is more important than the reality. That is why this confidence vote was hyped up as a “big week for the Government” and why you had various politicians speculating darkly – or hopefully, depending on what side they were on – about an election. Had there been the slightest possibility of there actually being an election, the vote itself would never have been called.
Leo Varadkar was right about this one – it was political theatre, not real opposition.