Here’s a question: What does a “status orange thunderstorm warning” mean, exactly? What am I, a normal member of the public, living in the middle of the country, supposed to do with that information? How does a “status orange” thunderstorm differ meaningfully from a “status yellow” thunderstorm, or a “status red” thunderstorm?
A thunderstorm is, after all, a thunderstorm. We know what to expect: There will be thunder, and rain, and flashes of lightning. The dogs won’t like it at all. If it is especially bad, there may be local flooding. If it is very bad, the power might go out. If we avoid those things, a thunderstorm can be…. Kind of thrilling, actually. So what does the warning convey?
One gets the sense, frankly, that certain of our meteorologists enjoy issuing warnings. Much like some of the sketchier “covid experts” who made hay for a couple of years during the pandemic, there’s nothing like issuing a warning to get yourself onto a radio slot, or an interview on the news. With those opportunities comes celebrity, and recognition, and social media following, and all the rest. Perhaps there’s an ideological component, too: For the young who have not lived long enough to experience the full range of the Irish climate, there’s a degree to which constant “warnings” are invaluable in reinforcing the sense that the weather itself is unstable, dangerous, and must be fixed by urgent political action. The Green Party is, after all, nothing more than a red weather warning with seats in the Dáil.
Here’s the thing: Thunderstorms are not uncommon in Ireland. Nor are winter storms. Or high winds. Or very wet months. Or the occasional – and formerly celebrated, but now feared – week of good weather. Things that are unusual in the Irish climate are things like proper hurricanes – we had one in the early 1980s – or tornados. If Tipperary was momentarily to turn into Tornado alley, I’d certainly appreciate a good orange warning. But we don’t need one for a few claps of thunder and a bit of torrential rain.
It is not, I think, healthy to run the country as if it is in a state of perma-crisis. This does not just apply to the weather, but the weather is a symptom of the wider problem. Good weather comes with warnings to be careful in the water. Bad weather, with warnings to be careful on the roads. Christmas, with warnings to be careful about how much you drink. Most news with warnings about how much you think.
But here’s the thing: Sensible adults know to be careful in the water in all weather, and careful on the roads at all times. One of the things I’ve found, since growing older, is that you slow down on the roads: Since I got married, I am suddenly more aware that death may meet me just around the next corner. One of the things about getting older (and I remain quite young) is an increasing awareness of just how many ways there are to die, and how easy it is to lose your life.
So are these warnings targeted – as Liam Fay speculated in yesterday’s Sunday Times – at the young? Is it a cultural thing, where a generation of Irish young people just can’t survive without being constantly minded and nannied by the state and its organs?
I’d argue, respectfully, that he’s wrong: Though it may feel like pandering to the worst instincts of generation woke, at times, it’s probably something much simpler. The media, these days, is desperate for your attention. Sales are down. Readership is down. There are more outlets competing for a dwindling number of ears and eyeballs. And nothing sells like panic.
And so, it’s simply the case that the outlet which runs with “Thunderstorms expected this evening” will get many fewer eyeballs than the outlet which screams at you that the weather may threaten life, limb, and pet. This is true of all news: The sensational sells, so everything must be made more sensational. Everyone, these days, even the Irish Times, is a tabloid: “Man wanted for questioning in connection with murder” must become “Killer on the loose!”, and so on. And the state is not immune: In order to get your attention, all problems must be magnified and highlighted and turned into crisis. Covid Crisis. Homelessness Crisis. Climate Crisis.
And the corollary of this is that the state itself undermines its own record: When we have Governments talking constantly about all these crises, it fundamentally undermines the idea that the nation is well governed. Status Orange weather warnings, in other words, are not unrelated to Sinn Fein’s present position in the polls. When everything is a crisis, something needs to change.
Even if nothing is really a crisis at all.